766
FXUS63 KOAX 231100
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
600 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into
  Friday morning, with highs generally confined to the 70s.

- The heaviest rainfall is expected Thursday night, with totals
  approaching 1 to 2 inches in southeast Nebraska.

- Hot and humid weather returns this weekend, with heat index
  values potentially reaching 105 to 110 degrees by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Pretty quiet across the area as of 11 PM, with earlier rain
having largely dissipated. However, additional showers and
storms are still on track to move into portions of the area
Thursday morning as another shortwave trough slides through and
low level moisture transport points toward the area. Little to
no instability will be in place, so thunderstorms chances will
be quite low, but any showers that do develop could be somewhat
efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
climbing over 1.75" near the NE/KS border and warm cloud depths
over 4 km. That said, latest guidance has trended toward keeping
the heavier precip farther southwest, with only a 10% chance of
seeing at least 1" clipping Jefferson County. In fact, now only
expecting a few tenths of an inch at most southwest of a line
from Albion to Beatrice, with maybe only a few hundredths to the
northeast. Despite the downward trend in precip chances,
temperatures look to remain on the cooler side, with highs in
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

While any showers should dissipate through Thursday afternoon,
we`ll once again see shower and storm redevelopment Thursday
evening into early Friday as a stronger shortwave trough moves
through with low level moisture transport pointing into
southeast NE. Like tonight, trends with the heaviest
precipitation have been a little farther south. Elevated
precipitable water values (near 2") and warm cloud depths over
4.5 km suggest we`ll have some efficient rain producers. In
addition, it looks like we`ll have maybe a little more
instability, at least along the NE/KS border, so could see
totals over 1" in that area, with some localized 2+" amounts.
We`ll have to see how things trend through the day on Thursday.
Otherwise, precip will taper off through the day with lingering
clouds giving us one more day of highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s for most.

Heat will then build back in for the weekend and into next week
as ridging to our west will amplify and edge eastward. NAEFS
and EPS guidance shows 850 mb temperatures climbing into the mid
and then upper 20s Saturday and Sunday, good for the 90th+
percentile of climatology. Still some questions on how deep
we`ll mix with stark differences between EPS and GEFS guidance.
GEFS members are almost certainly over-mixed with temperatures
well into the 100s area-wide. EPS seems more reasonable with
highs in the mid 90s to around 100, but with our tendency to mix
a little deeper on anomalously warm days would lean toward
slightly higher temperatures than what EPS is showing. In
addition, between moisture advection and corn
evapotranspiration, dewpoints look to climb back into the 70s
and lead to heat indices in at least parts of the area Saturday
through Monday. Sunday currently looks like the hottest day,
with many locations seeing heat indices of 105 to 110.

All that said, one fly in the ointment on the temperature
forecast will be potential for various bits of shortwave energy
to round the ridge and slide through the forecast area giving us
chances for showers and storms, or at the very least, clouds.
Still quite a bit of spread in timing, track, and strength of
these disturbances, but currently looking at occasional 10-20%
chances, especially in northeast NE into west-central IA Sunday
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions are in place across the terminals this morning,
with an area of scattered showers across south-central Nebraska
expected to shift eastward over the morning and into the
afternoon, decreasing in coverage and intensity while it does
so. Winds will increasingly become southeasterly, with speeds of
10-15 kts this afternoon. Expect a break in showers and storms
late this afternoon into the evening, before another round
arrives late this evening into the early morning hours, with
increasing chances for thunder and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen