443
FXUS63 KOAX 161903
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
203 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible Monday from 6 PM to 1 AM,
  with damaging wind, hail, and an isolated tornado possible
  across northeast Nebraska.

- Tuesday bring additional chances for strong to severe
  thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening across the
  entire area.

- A shift in the weather pattern Wednesday through Friday brings
  some slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Today and Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a zonal mid/upper
pattern over the eastern two third of the CONUS while the western
third continues to hold southwesterly flow that is every so slightly
propping up heights over the Rocky Mountain Front Range. Looking
into the surface pattern locally, we find ourselves in the wake of
an MCV from morning convection while the prominent surface low
over west-central Missouri continues to pull northerly winds
across our area. With the MCV/convective debris pushing
eastward, we`re being left wind increasing clear skies through
the afternoon with highs trending towards the lower 80s before
things cool down tonight. As the daylight decreases, so too will
wind speeds, leading to tumbling temperatures as radiational
cooling ramps up. Convective debris will be incoming from the
northwest, giving some high cloud cover to limit that cooling,
while fog formation is favored near the NE/IA border and points
southeast. Initial model runs indicate that it may not be dense,
but patchy coverage of 1 mile or less is expected in that area
from 5 to 10 AM.

Monday and Tuesday:

After the aforementioned decaying showers and storms wafting in
from the northwest tomorrow morning, our next chance at showers
and storms returns Monday afternoon and evening, where a
shortwave/associated surface boundary shifts southeastward
across the Dakotas and pushes a narrow but moist airmass ahead
of it. Along with increasing CAPE values, the main branch of the
mid/upper jet stream will be places just to the north of the
area, helping to increase effective shear levels to over 35 kts.
Scattered storms will generally be steered perpendicular to the
surface boundary and orientation of the moving baroclinic zone,
with dry lower levels for wind gusts and an elongated hodograph
for severe hail. There`s just enough low-level curvature to the
hodograph to facilitate a tornado or two, but slightly elevated
LCLs may make it hard for more than a couple to reach the
ground. Most of the activity should begin near 5/6 PM in central
Nebraska, moving into northeast Nebraska midnight to 1 AM. Some
elevated convection is also possible into the overnight hours,
but overall intensity will be limited by decreasing instability
across northeast Nebraska.

Additional chances for strong to severe storms develops Tuesday as a
more focused cold front shifts southward across the forecast area
while a primary surface low takes shape over western Nebraska. We`ll
continue to be in the periphery of potent mid/upper flow that
increases slightly and veers throughout the column. With the slow
progression of the front, moisture will continue to pool just ahead
of it and further facilitate strong to severe potential. An
initially discrete storm mode will cluster over time as the bulk
shear vectors become parallel with the boundary. All hazards remain
a concern, with a higher intensity ceiling while being more
widespread compared to Monday afternoon. Tuesday afternoon and
evening continue to look most favorable for the activity, with the
threat shifting east-southeast into the overnight hours.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Wednesday will be the coolest day of the remaining week, with daily
low-end chances at showers and storms holding on as the mid/upper
pattern builds a ridge to the west. Temperatures will trend up
slightly heading into the weekend, but we`ll still be cool and
conformable heading into late August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Clouds continue to to erode this afternoon, with northerly winds
with a few gusts at KOFK continue through much of the afternoon
before they become light once again between 22 and 01z. With
those light winds, fog formation will once again be possible,
with the strongest signal being near the NE/IA border and points
south, with the timing currently having only limited
restrictions, as KOMA will be on the northern edge of the fog.
Once winds begin picking back up, they`ll be out of the south-
southwest and remain at less than 10 kts through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen