372
FXUS63 KOAX 241905
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
205 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances continue through
  Sunday, with the best potential for more widespread rainfall
  (50-80% PoPs) late this evening through tonight.

- The wet pattern continues into Thursday, with the best
  potential for widespread rainfall (40-70% PoPs) being Monday
  afternoon through Monday night.

- Event-total rainfall (tonight through Tuesday) of generally
  0.5-1.0".

- Temperatures gradually warming through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...Remainder of this afternoon through Sunday...

Early-afternoon water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough
over the Sierra Nevadas into lower CO Valley with a downstream
belt of westerly flow in place over the central Plains. A west-
to-east oriented band of showers and isolated thunderstorms from
the NE Panhandle into west-central IA as of 2 PM is likely
being forced by the response to frontogenesis in the 700-mb
layer acting on a moist, weakly unstable environment. And,
latest CAM data suggest that band will slowly drift south
through our area this afternoon into evening, gradually
weakening with time.

Tonight into Sunday, the models suggest a separate, more
widespread complex of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving
through the area. The highest PoPS of 50-80% are forecast from
late this evening through tonight. It appear that precipitation
will end by late morning in northeast NE and west-central IA,
and during the afternoon in southeast NE and southwest IA.
Precipitation amounts through this forecast period will remain
relatively light, and generally less than 0.25-0.5" at most
locations.

Highs on Sunday will be a function of how quickly the rain moves
out of the area, with readings in the mid 60s to around 70
forecast.


...Sunday night through Tuesday...

The above-mentioned, western U.S. trough is expected to phase
with a polar-branch system over the northern High Plains, with
the consolidated trough deepening over the broader Great Plains
on Monday. By Tuesday, a prominent, mid/upper-level low is
forecast to evolve over the northern Plains into upper MS
Valley, with a strong vorticity maximum and associated jet
streak rotating around the low and through the mid MO Valley.
That upper-air pattern evolution will support the continuation
of a wet forecast, with the best potential for widespread
rainfall being Monday into Monday night (40-70% PoPs). Event-
total rainfall amounts (tonight through Tuesday) indicate the
potential for 0.5-1.0" across much of the area, except for our
counties near the SD border, where totals are expected to be
less.

Seasonably cool temperatures will continue through this period,
with highs mainly in the 60s.


...Wednesday through Friday...

The above-mentioned upper low is forecast to remain in place
over the upper MS Valley on Wednesday, before accelerating east
during the latter half of the work week. At the same time,
another shortwave trough is expected to pivot south through the
central Plains on Thursday, supporting the continuation of
20-40% PoPs on Wednesday and Thursday. Low PoPs (~20%) will be
included in the forecast through Friday, but the absence of any
discernible forcing mechanisms casts uncertainty on
precipitation potential at that time.

It appears that we will see a warming trend this period with
highs in the 60s to around 70 on Wednesday increasing to the mid
to upper 70s by Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A narrow band of showers near KOFK as of 17z is forecast to
drift toward KOMA by about 21z, so -SHRA have been added to
those locations. MVFR visibilities are possible at KOFK for the
next 30 to 60 minutes. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to prevail into tonight ahead of a more widespread area of
showers, which is forecast to overspread the region after
midnight (25/05z). Ceilings will concurrently lower to MVFR with
IFR conditions most probable at KOFK and KLNK Sunday morning.
East winds will continue through the forecast period at
generally less than 12 kt. The exception is at KLNK this
afternoon where sustained speeds of 12 kt are forecast with
gusts to 19 kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead