Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
263 AGUS74 KWCO 281526 HMDNWC National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL 1015 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025 .Synopsis... River flooding to persist through at least Sunday across the Central Plains and Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... Localized flooding potential continues today across portions of Eastern New Mexico ... Flash flooding possible across portions of the Northeast... Flooding possible next week along the Gulf Coast... Flooding potential continues across the Mariana Islands... .Central Plains and Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... Scattered minor to isolated moderate river flooding is ongoing and forecast across portions of MO, NE, IA, MN, and WI through the weekend following repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over the past several days. Additional precipitation this weekend may delay recessions and/or generate renewed rises on already flooded rivers however, the progressive nature of the activity should mitigate the coverage and severity of additional flooding impacts. In addition to ongoing river flooding, slow moving precipitation today, will bring the potential for flash and urban flooding as it moves across the Ozarks into the Middle/Upper Mississippi. .New Mexico... Isolated flash flooding will be possible through day 2 (Sun), especially near recent burn scars in eastern New Mexico. .Northeast... Isolated flash flooding remains possible across eastern NY, VT, NH, RI, and ME as showers and storms traverse the region today (Sat). Given near normal antecedent conditions in place ahead of this rainfall should mitigate small stream and river flooding. Flash flooding is the primary concern, especially near complex terrain and in urban areas. .Gulf Coast... Periods of heavy rainfall may generate isolated flash and urban flooding impacts along the I-10 corridor from coastal MS through the FL Big Bend region early to mid next week. For most of the region, current soil moisture values are near normal (35 - 55% RSM, 0 - 10 cm NASA SPoRT) and streamflow values are near to below normal for this time of year (USGS), which suggests infiltration capacity initially. The exception to this is the FL Big Bend region, where wetter soils (RSM 60%, NASA SPoRT) are in place following recent rainfall, which indicates slightly greater hydrologic sensitivity to rainfall. As of now, the primary threat is urban flooding given the dense urban infrastructure along the I-10 corridor. Both the GFS and NBM-forced NWM are indicating little if any responses, as the heaviest QPF remains off of the coast. Given the time frame, confidence remains low in the exact placement and magnitude of responses. .Mariana Islands... The potential for flash flooding will continue through late day 2 (Sun, local time) as monsoonal showers and storms persist across the islands. //GKendrick $$