386
AGUS74 KWCO 281952
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
300 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026

...Locally significant flash and urban flooding possible in the Upper Ohio
Valley into the Northeast... Flash flooding impacts from the Desert
Southwest into the Central Plains... River flooding continues in Southern
Texas...

.Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall through mid-week will bring the potential
for locally significant flash and urban flooding to the region. The general
QPF trend continues to increase from previous model runs, indicating that
widespread rainfall of 2 to 4" with locally higher totals (up to 6") is
likely. In addition, the forecast heavy rainfall has expanded farther
northeast and southwest, with more precipitation expected over Connecticut
into New Hampshire tomorrow. In locations outside of metropolitan areas,
soil moisture levels are tending toward normal, providing capacity for some
rainfall infiltration that could help mitigate flooding impacts.

.Desert Southwest into the Central Plains...
As monsoonal moisture continues to move northward across the region, the
risk of isolated flash flooding will linger from eastern Arizona into the
Central Plains through mid-week. While some soils within the region have
moistened slightly in response to previous days of precipitation, areas
with especially arid soils or burn scars will be particularly vulnerable to
upcoming rainfall. Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to the flooding of
low-lying areas, roads, and arroyos, as well as urbanized settings.

.Southern Texas...
Major river flooding is ongoing and forecast to continue along the Nueces
rivers. The flood wave on the Nueces will continue to move downstream this
week, with recessions generally unimpeded due to little to no rainfall
expected over the next 7 days.

//GKendrick/Ducre

Additional National Water Center products are available at
www.weather.gov/owp/operations



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