049
AGUS74 KWCO 151249
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
700 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025

No changes to the FHO or discussion this morning.

//TMK

Previous Discussion as follows:

...Locally considerable flash and urban flooding possible for California
into the weekend...

.California...
Confidence continues to increase for flooding impacts across portions of
California, some of which may be locally significant, especially for areas
along the Transverse Ranges, including Los Angeles through Saturday.
Through the region rainfall accumulation generally around 1", with local
values up to 3.5" has increased soil moisture over the region some. Though
there may be some capacity for infiltration, if storms train over the same
area, soils will become overwhelmed, resulting in increases on local
streams and rivers. However, river flooding is not expected at this point.
The main concern today and tomorrow will be urban areas, areas along the
western slopes of the Transverse Ranges, and recently burned locations.
These locations will be most vulnerable to the potential for significant
flooding. Additionally, given forecast rainfall rates, debris flows are
likely if storms move over burned areas. Given the localized nature of the
significant flood a considerable" flood impact polygon will not be added
to the FHO this issuance.

Multiple rounds of rainfall are possible over the region over the next
week, bringing the potential for flooding to portions of coastal
California. Given that rainfall early in the week is generally light and
the heaviest rainfall may be later in the week, we will wait to consider
adding this risk to the FHO.

Additional National Water Center products are available at
www.weather.gov/owp/operations

//GKendrick



$$