177
AGUS74 KWCO 111513
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
1015 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025

.Synopsis...
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding possible in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley... Renewed flooding potential in the Southern Plains
and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...

.Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding remains possible through
early day 2 (Sat) across portions of IA, northern MO, and northern IL as
slow-moving thunderstorms with periods of high rainfall rates impact the
region. Several inches of rainfall overnight have left top-layer soils
across IA and northern IL wet and nearing saturation (65 - 90% RSM, 0 - 10
cm, NASA SPoRT) increasing the potential for rapid runoff into already
elevated streams. While confidence remains low in the exact placement and
magnitude of flooding impacts due to the convective nature of the rainfall,
the expected training of storms with locally intense rates will likely
result in isolated instances of flash flooding. This is supported by the
National Water Model Short-Range Forecast, which continues to highlight the
potential for rapid-onset flooding, primarily across IA, with signals
expected to expand as the event continues.

.Southern Plains...
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall on days 2 - 3 (Sat - Sun)
will bring a renewed threat for at least isolated flooding impacts,
especially from central TX into northeast OK, where the hydrologic
environment remains sensitive following recent heavy rainfall. While
overall rainfall totals remain modest (3-day totals up to 3", locally
higher amounts possible), there is concern for the development of robust
rainfall rates and localized training, which may result in enhanced runoff
and rapid rises in area streams, arroyos, and low water crossings. Even in
areas with dry antecedent conditions, such as the TX Panhandle and NM,
hydrophobic soils may enhance flash flood potential. Recently burned areas
will also remain susceptible to flash flooding.

.Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
A wet pattern will remain in place over the next week, bringing daily
rounds of light rainfall (7-day totals up to 2") across an already wet
region and increasing the potential for renewed flooding impacts. Due to
the extended timeframe, confidence remains low regarding any hydrologic
responses, but given the complex terrain and highly urbanized areas,
isolated flash flooding cant be entirely ruled out, especially if high
rain rates develop or repeated rounds of convection occur over the same
areas.

//Freeman



$$