Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPNPL
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:NORTH PLATTE R AT NORTHGATE CO 4NW
NGTC2 8.0 9.5 11.0 | <5 <5 9 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:ENCAMPMENT R AT ENCAMPMENT WY 8NE
ECRW4 6.5 7.5 8.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT SARATOGA WY
SRAW4 8.5 9.5 10.5 | <5 10 37 | <5 <5 14 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT SINCLAIR WY 7NE
SINW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 8 28 | <5 <5 14 | <5 <5 6
:MEDICINE BOW R AT HANNA WY 10N
HANW4 6.0 7.0 8.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT CASPER WY 1NW
CPRW4 8.0 9.0 10.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT GLENROCK WY 5ESE
GLNW4 7.0 8.0 9.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT ORIN WY 2E
ORIW4 8.0 9.0 10.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LARAMIE R AT WOODS LNDNG WY 3NE
WODW4 6.0 6.5 7.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LARAMIE R AT LARAMIE WY
LLRW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 9 18 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:LARAMIE R AT BOSLER WY 2S
BOSW4 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LARAMIE R AT FT LARAMIE WY 5SSW
FLAW4 7.0 8.0 9.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT HENRY NE 1S
HENN1 5.5 6.5 7.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT MITCHELL NE 1S
MICN1 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 13 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT MINATARE NE 2SW
MNTN1 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT BRIDGEPORT NE 1NNE
BGPN1 9.5 10.0 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT LISCO NE 1S
LSON1 4.0 5.0 6.0 | <5 <5 13 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT LEWELLEN NE NO CH
LEWN1 8.0 9.0 10.0 | <5 8 17 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:NORTH PLATTE R AT NORTH PLATTE NE
NPTN1 6.0 6.5 7.0 | <5 9 21 | <5 8 14 | <5 7 12
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:NORTH PLATTE R
NGTC2 2.8/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 6.1/ 6.3/
:ENCAMPMENT R
ECRW4 3.0/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.8/ 5.1/
:NORTH PLATTE R
SRAW4 4.4/ 5.6/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 7.9/ 8.4/
SINW4 3.8/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 6.5/ 6.4/ 7.6/ 8.3/
:MEDICINE BOW R
HANW4 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.2/
:NORTH PLATTE R
CPRW4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0/
GLNW4 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.3/
ORIW4 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.8/ 5.4/
:LARAMIE R
WODW4 1.6/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.4/
LLRW4 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 7.7/ 7.6/ 7.9/ 8.1/
BOSW4 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.6/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 4.4/ 4.7/
FLAW4 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.5/
:NORTH PLATTE R
HENN1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.8/
MICN1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 2.1/ 2.2/
MNTN1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.4/
BGPN1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 4.7/
LSON1 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.7/ 1.8/
LEWN1 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 6.3/ 6.4/
NPTN1 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.4/ 5.8/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:NORTH PLATTE R
NGTC2 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.1/
:ENCAMPMENT R
ECRW4 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.5/
:NORTH PLATTE R
SRAW4 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.2/
SINW4 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 2.8/
:MEDICINE BOW R
HANW4 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/
:NORTH PLATTE R
CPRW4 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/
GLNW4 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/
ORIW4 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/
:LARAMIE R
WODW4 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/
LLRW4 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/
BOSW4 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/
FLAW4 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/
:NORTH PLATTE R
HENN1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
MICN1 0.4/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/
MNTN1 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/
BGPN1 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/
LSON1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/
LEWN1 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.8/
NPTN1 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/
.END
$$