Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
187 FNUS86 KMTR 152154 FWLMTR ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 254 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ##################################################################### ## ## ## Discussions from the latest FWF below ## ## ## ##################################################################### ...Discussion from SFOFWFMTR... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING...The relative humidity has dropped anywhere from 20-40% from this time yesterday as a warmer, drier air mass settles in. Temperatures are climbing into the 90s across the interior with 70s and 80s along the coast. Similar warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Strong thermal belting will suppress humidity recoveries at elevations above 1,500 feet. Fortunately the winds look to remain relatively light and mostly onshore during this event. Fuels will respond to the drier weather, and the regional Energy Release Components are moving back to normal as the week goes on. The remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will bring a robust push of moisture from S-N starting late Wednesday. This moisture will initially arrive in the upper atmosphere. With dry air remaining in the lower levels, this set up brings a chance for high-based, dry thunderstorms. The initial threat is to the Central Coast Wednesday night before spreading north Thursday and Friday. As the event unfolds, storms should transition from dry to wet, with a better chance of beneficial rain reaching the ground and helping suppress the ignition threat from lightning strikes. In the early stages (especially Wednesday night) the ignition threat is elevated since the dry lightning threat succeeds a period of warm, dry weather. Thunderstorms (both dry and wet) also bring localized erratic, gusty winds that can cause rapid spread of new or existing fires. ...Discussion from SFOFWFEKA... Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday and aid in quickly drying out fuels. Interior valley highs will be in the mid 90s with humidity as low as the upper teens. Strong thermal belts will maintain poor overnight recovery at mid and upper elevations. Winds will be mostly gentle and terrain driven. Daytime conditions will ease later in the week with more moisture entering the area. There will be a slight chance (20%) of semi-dry thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons mostly focused around the Yolla Bollys and over Mendocino and Lake Counties with some slight potential further north. ##################################################################### ## ## ## Complete a discussion for each ECCDA segment below ## ## When done click transmit, product sent as KMTRFWLMTR ## ## ## ##################################################################### ECC010-161000- St Helena ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Marin and Sonoma and Napa Counties 254 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING...The relative humidity has dropped anywhere from 20-40% from this time yesterday as a warmer, drier air mass settles in. Temperatures are climbing into the 90s across the interior with 70s and 80s along the coast. Similar warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Strong thermal belting will suppress humidity recoveries at elevations above 1,500 feet. Fortunately the winds look to remain relatively light and mostly onshore during this event. Fuels will respond to the drier weather, and the regional Energy Release Components are moving back to normal as the week goes on. The remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will bring a robust push of moisture from S-N starting late Wednesday. This moisture will initially arrive in the upper atmosphere. With dry air remaining in the lower levels, this set up brings a chance for high-based, dry thunderstorms. The initial threat is to the Central Coast Wednesday night before spreading north Thursday and Friday. As the event unfolds, storms should transition from dry to wet, with a better chance of beneficial rain reaching the ground and helping suppress the ignition threat from lightning strikes. In the early stages (especially Wednesday night) the ignition threat is elevated since the dry lightning threat succeeds a period of warm, dry weather. Thunderstorms (both dry and wet) also bring localized erratic, gusty winds that can cause rapid spread of new or existing fires. $$ ECC014-161000- Morgan Hill ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Alameda and Contra Costa and Santa Clara Counties 254 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING...The relative humidity has dropped anywhere from 20-40% from this time yesterday as a warmer, drier air mass settles in. Temperatures are climbing into the 90s across the interior with 70s and 80s along the coast. Similar warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Strong thermal belting will suppress humidity recoveries at elevations above 1,500 feet. Fortunately the winds look to remain relatively light and mostly onshore during this event. Fuels will respond to the drier weather, and the regional Energy Release Components are moving back to normal as the week goes on. The remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will bring a robust push of moisture from S-N starting late Wednesday. This moisture will initially arrive in the upper atmosphere. With dry air remaining in the lower levels, this set up brings a chance for high-based, dry thunderstorms. The initial threat is to the Central Coast Wednesday night before spreading north Thursday and Friday. As the event unfolds, storms should transition from dry to wet, with a better chance of beneficial rain reaching the ground and helping suppress the ignition threat from lightning strikes. In the early stages (especially Wednesday night) the ignition threat is elevated since the dry lightning threat succeeds a period of warm, dry weather. Thunderstorms (both dry and wet) also bring localized erratic, gusty winds that can cause rapid spread of new or existing fires. $$ ECC013-161000- Felton ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Santa Cruz and San Mateo Counties 254 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING...The relative humidity has dropped anywhere from 20-40% from this time yesterday as a warmer, drier air mass settles in. Temperatures are climbing into the 90s across the interior with 70s and 80s along the coast. Similar warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Strong thermal belting will suppress humidity recoveries at elevations above 1,500 feet. Fortunately the winds look to remain relatively light and mostly onshore during this event. Fuels will respond to the drier weather, and the regional Energy Release Components are moving back to normal as the week goes on. The remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will bring a robust push of moisture from S-N starting late Wednesday. This moisture will initially arrive in the upper atmosphere. With dry air remaining in the lower levels, this set up brings a chance for high-based, dry thunderstorms. The initial threat is to the Central Coast Wednesday night before spreading north Thursday and Friday. As the event unfolds, storms should transition from dry to wet, with a better chance of beneficial rain reaching the ground and helping suppress the ignition threat from lightning strikes. In the early stages (especially Wednesday night) the ignition threat is elevated since the dry lightning threat succeeds a period of warm, dry weather. Thunderstorms (both dry and wet) also bring localized erratic, gusty winds that can cause rapid spread of new or existing fires. $$ ECC018-161000- Monterey ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Monterey and San Benito County 254 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING...The relative humidity has dropped anywhere from 20-40% from this time yesterday as a warmer, drier air mass settles in. Temperatures are climbing into the 90s across the interior with 70s and 80s along the coast. Similar warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Strong thermal belting will suppress humidity recoveries at elevations above 1,500 feet. Fortunately the winds look to remain relatively light and mostly onshore during this event. Fuels will respond to the drier weather, and the regional Energy Release Components are moving back to normal as the week goes on. The remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will bring a robust push of moisture from S-N starting late Wednesday. This moisture will initially arrive in the upper atmosphere. With dry air remaining in the lower levels, this set up brings a chance for high-based, dry thunderstorms. The initial threat is to the Central Coast Wednesday night before spreading north Thursday and Friday. As the event unfolds, storms should transition from dry to wet, with a better chance of beneficial rain reaching the ground and helping suppress the ignition threat from lightning strikes. In the early stages (especially Wednesday night) the ignition threat is elevated since the dry lightning threat succeeds a period of warm, dry weather. Thunderstorms (both dry and wet) also bring localized erratic, gusty winds that can cause rapid spread of new or existing fires. $$