Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
543 FNUS86 KMTR 172141 FWLMTR ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 241 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025 ##################################################################### ## ## ## Discussions from the latest FWF below ## ## ## ##################################################################### ...Discussion from SFOFWFMTR... Last warm day today before tropical moisture infiltrates the region. Hints of moisture aloft from the remnants of Tropical Depression Mario are making their way into the Central Coast region. As of writing, there have been a few small showers making their way up the coast and the Santa Lucia Range. Activity is anticipated to ramp up later tonight as instability increases. The chance for dry lighting is greatest in these southern zones overnight tonight. By Thursday morning, we will undergo a transition to a more tropical-type airmass with a deep moisture profile supportive of thunderstorms with ample wetting rain. The biggest threat during this time will be gusty and erratic winds around the thunderstorm environment, and of course any lightning strikes that happen to strike away from the core. This activity gradually moves northward through Thursday evening with the chance for lightning decreasing with latitude. ...Discussion from SFOFWFEKA... Inland conditions remain warm and dry Wednesday afternoon. Northeast winds will become breezy tonight over the interior ridges of Del Norte zone 203. These winds will persist into Friday morning. A remnant tropical system will begin pushing moisture in from the south late Wednesday. Showers will move in Thursday with a slight chance for thunderstorms (10-15%) for mainly Mendocino, Lake and southern Trinity counties through Thursday afternoon. These initial storms would be more dry in nature, but confidence is low on available instability at that time. Moisture and instability increase late Thursday and Friday when better confidence for isolated thunderstorms and a potential (45%) wetting rainfall from showers and more rain productive thunderstorms. Thunderstorm formation Friday will be somewhat dependent on how much clearing can occur through the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to Saturday for mainly Trinity County. ##################################################################### ## ## ## Complete a discussion for each ECCDA segment below ## ## When done click transmit, product sent as KMTRFWLMTR ## ## ## ##################################################################### ECC010-180945- St Helena ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Marin and Sonoma and Napa Counties 241 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Last warm day today before tropical moisture infiltrates the region. Hints of moisture aloft from the remnants of Tropical Depression Mario are making their way into the Central Coast region. As of writing, there have been a few small showers making their way up the coast and the Santa Lucia Range. Activity is anticipated to ramp up later tonight as instability increases. The chance for dry lighting is greatest in these southern zones overnight tonight. By Thursday morning, we will undergo a transition to a more tropical-type airmass with a deep moisture profile supportive of thunderstorms with ample wetting rain. The biggest threat during this time will be gusty and erratic winds around the thunderstorm environment, and of course any lightning strikes that happen to strike away from the core. This activity gradually moves northward through Thursday evening with the chance for lightning decreasing with latitude. $$ ECC014-180945- Morgan Hill ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Alameda and Contra Costa and Santa Clara Counties 241 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Last warm day today before tropical moisture infiltrates the region. Hints of moisture aloft from the remnants of Tropical Depression Mario are making their way into the Central Coast region. As of writing, there have been a few small showers making their way up the coast and the Santa Lucia Range. Activity is anticipated to ramp up later tonight as instability increases. The chance for dry lighting is greatest in these southern zones overnight tonight. By Thursday morning, we will undergo a transition to a more tropical-type airmass with a deep moisture profile supportive of thunderstorms with ample wetting rain. The biggest threat during this time will be gusty and erratic winds around the thunderstorm environment, and of course any lightning strikes that happen to strike away from the core. This activity gradually moves northward through Thursday evening with the chance for lightning decreasing with latitude. $$ ECC013-180945- Felton ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Santa Cruz and San Mateo Counties 241 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Last warm day today before tropical moisture infiltrates the region. Hints of moisture aloft from the remnants of Tropical Depression Mario are making their way into the Central Coast region. As of writing, there have been a few small showers making their way up the coast and the Santa Lucia Range. Activity is anticipated to ramp up later tonight as instability increases. The chance for dry lighting is greatest in these southern zones overnight tonight. By Thursday morning, we will undergo a transition to a more tropical-type airmass with a deep moisture profile supportive of thunderstorms with ample wetting rain. The biggest threat during this time will be gusty and erratic winds around the thunderstorm environment, and of course any lightning strikes that happen to strike away from the core. This activity gradually moves northward through Thursday evening with the chance for lightning decreasing with latitude. $$ ECC018-180945- Monterey ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Monterey and San Benito County 241 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Last warm day today before tropical moisture infiltrates the region. Hints of moisture aloft from the remnants of Tropical Depression Mario are making their way into the Central Coast region. As of writing, there have been a few small showers making their way up the coast and the Santa Lucia Range. Activity is anticipated to ramp up later tonight as instability increases. The chance for dry lighting is greatest in these southern zones overnight tonight. By Thursday morning, we will undergo a transition to a more tropical-type airmass with a deep moisture profile supportive of thunderstorms with ample wetting rain. The biggest threat during this time will be gusty and erratic winds around the thunderstorm environment, and of course any lightning strikes that happen to strike away from the core. This activity gradually moves northward through Thursday evening with the chance for lightning decreasing with latitude. $$