894
FXUS66 KMTR 141752
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1052 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 204 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Departing trough and upstream ridging promote fair weather and a
warming trend through the rest of the week. Slight cool off into
the weekend as another upper level trough moves through. Better
signal for gusty conditions and potential offshore winds early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Stratus lingers along the coast south of Point Reyes and extends
inland across the Monterey Bay region, down the Salinas Valley,
and into the Morgan Hill-Gilroy-Hollister area. The stratus is
expected to continue mixing out through the morning, with
generally fair weather today. No changes to the forecast.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Northwest flow and drier air aloft will restore fair weather
conditions across the region today, paving the way for a warming
trend through this week. High temperatures around seasonal normals
today with mostly clear skies. Some cloud cover will likely
encroach upon the North Bay later this afternoon as some leftover
moisture from decaying convection advects into the northern
portion of the state. CAMs also advertising some fair weather CU
across the Gabilan Range again, but limited-to-no instability and
decreasing moisture will greatly limit any further vertical
development.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Despite a quiet mid-week period, a rather active pattern persists
into this weekend and early next week. A deep upper low is progged
to move out of the Gulf of Alaska region into the Western US by
the weekend, closely resembling a pattern that would result in
offshore winds across the North Bay and Central Coast. However,
current guidance depicts this feature taking a bit more of a
western trajectory compared to a typically "inside slider", so we
don`t see the signal for widespread impactful offshore winds as of
this issuance. However, ensemble guidance does advertise high
confidence in this pattern resulting in gusty surface conditions
across the region, especially Saturday and Sunday. Stay tuned for
forecast updates and any necessary information regarding the
potential for elevated fire danger this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

MVFR conditions are ongoing around the Central Coast this morning
with VFR elsewhere. West/Northwest winds will increase this
afternoon before easing into the night. There is high confidence for
KSNS, KMRY, KHAF and potentially KOAK to see a return of MVFR/IFR
conditions early Thursday morning. Elsewhere, moderate confidence
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Expecting moderate west-northwest winds by this
afternoon with occasional gusts and VFR conditions. Moderate
confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings linger at KMRY while VFR
conditions have returned to KSNS. KMRY is expected to return to VFR
by around 19Z. Northwest winds will increase this afternoon before
easing by this evening. High confidence for MVFR/IFR conditions to
return Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 825 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Winds are increasing across the waters with Gales in the northern
waters that will spread to the southern outer waters into
Wednesday afternoon. These strong winds will result in steep fresh
swell with hazardous conditions. Winds and seas look to remain
elevated through the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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