627
FXUS66 KMTR 120016
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
516 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026

 - Warming and drying trend will peak this afternoon

 - Gradual cooling trend and unsettled weather through midweek

 - Warming and drying trend midweek and beyond

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026

The stratus seems to be on track this afternoon. Most notably,
around the Monterey Bay, the stratus has made an ambitious push
inland. The push can be observed along the rest of the coast as
well, but it is not as pronounced. Tonight the marine layer is
expected to be around 1000ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

Low clouds have retreated to the coast as the marine layer
compressed overnight and into early this morning to around 1,000
feet. As high pressure continues to strengthen over the Desert
Southwest and 850 mb temperatures warm to 20-22 deg C,
temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s
across the interior, upper 60s to low 80s just inland away from
the coast, and locations along the immediate coastline in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Stratus is likely to return to the coast this evening and spread
locally inland through Tuesday morning as a shallow marine layer
remains in place. Mist or light coastal drizzle will also be
possible tonight into Tuesday morning.

A gradual cool down, especially over the North Bay and Bay Area,
is expected on Tuesday with afternoon maximum temperatures in the
70s to lower 80s across the interior and upper 50s to lower 70s.
Interior areas of the Central Coast are likely to see the 80s to
near 90 deg F as the mid/upper level ridge across the Desert
Southwest begins to shift eastward ahead of an approaching trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The aforementioned mid/upper level trough will cool temperatures
even further on Wednesday as a cut-off low pushes inland across
Oregon and northern California. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will
also develop each afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 25 to
40 miles per hour along the coast, through gaps and passes, and
across the ridgetops through late week. There remains a chance of
drizzle or very light Wednesday through early Thursday morning,
especially along the coast and favored upslope regions of the
coastal ranges. However, confidence of this occuring has
diminished given the northern track of the mid/upper level low.

Zonal flow then returns for the remainder of the work week and
into next weekend with dry conditions and moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026

Breezy westerly winds around 15kt will persist for
the next several hours becoming less than 10kt for the overnight
hours. The stratus looms just west of the terminal, but for now VFR
conditions prevail. Concur with the prior meteorologist that the
later onset of stratus will occur, but there is some guidance that
shows it seeping in around 4Z. There are also some models showing
the stratus arriving closers to 12Z, with low clouds mixing out by
17-20Z. Breezy westerlies return tomorrow afternoon, with gusts up
to 21kt by 21Z and 30kt closer to 30Z. Breezy winds look to last
into the evening with gusts to 20-25kt potentially lasting through
6Z. Medium confidence in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The actual Bay is socked in with stratus
which is making a good inland push. KMRY has already succumbed to
the stratus, with cigs falling to IFR. KSNS should follow suit, with
another night of low cigs and vis for the terminals. Most guidance
stratus mixing out by mid to late morning, with the exception being
at KMRY. There is uncertainty if we`ll be able to fully clear, or if
we`ll get a few pockets of sunshine between 18-23Z. Medium to high
confidence in the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 510 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026

Occasional strong gusts continue through tonight across the far
northern outer waters. Otherwise, a moderate to fresh northwest
breeze will continue over the waters through midweek. Seas subside
but remain moderate with 4 to 6 foot seas through midweek. Winds
increase and seas build starting mid-week with gale force winds
and wave heights in excess of 10 feet likely starting Friday and
continuing through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Kennedy

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