685
FXUS66 KMTR 011709
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1009 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

 - Deep marine layer, coastal drizzle mornings

 - Gusty winds likely Sunday afternoon into Monday evening.
   Highest along the coast, Altamont Pass, and Salinas Valley.

 - Quieter weather restored after Monday. Subtle warming trend mid
   next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

No changes to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 228 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
(Today and tonight)

Very well-defined and deep marine layer persists this morning
penetrating well inland and providing a refreshing shot of heavy
drizzle along coastal areas overnight. In fact, several locations
along the coast and East Bay Hills have seen a few hundredths of an
inch of precip over the last 24 hours. There is potential for
another round of this weather tonight as high surface pressure over
the waters reinforces robust onshore flow and a subtle upward
vertical motion promotes a deep marine layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 228 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

Still on track for a quick bout of gusty winds Sunday and Monday as
a weak upper low moves in to the PacNW. There is a consistent trend
where guidance has been nudging this trough a bit further north,
limiting its impact on us. Sunday and Monday afternoons still look
to be rather gusty, especially along the coastal areas and known
windy spots such as the San Bruno Gap and Altamont Pass. Still not
thinking this will be an "advisory level" event, but definitely
worth a mention for those traveling and recreating.

Beyond the windy period Sunday and Monday, there is a confident
signal for a warming trend through the middle of next week, but this
will likely only take us to about 5 degrees or so above normal for
interior areas. Otherwise, it`s back to our boring pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals with a marine
layer of about 1,400 feet. With the exception of HAF, moderate to
high confidence in widespread VFR by the afternoon with low stratus
sticking close to the coast. Very little change in the pattern is
anticipated through the TAF period; as such, similar conditions are
expected tonight as what is underway.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with westerly flow. High confidence
on VFR through the afternoon. Westerly winds will prevail through
the TAF period. High confidence in a sub-VFR ceiling returning to
the terminal tonight, likely similar to what is underway on the
cusp of IFR/MVFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low probability (20%) that low stratus clouds
will linger between OAK and SFO (and northward) through the
afternoon before filling back into the San Mateo Bridge Approach.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at both
terminals. Moderate confidence on the terminals (higher confidence
in SNS than MRY) achieving brief VFR this afternoon with low
stratus sticking close to the coast. Westerly winds will prevail
through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 952 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Moderate to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail with
widespread near-gale to gale force gusts on Sunday and Monday.
Seas will remain moderate to rough through Tuesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...KR

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