088
FXUS66 KMTR 121300
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
500 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns today

 - Moderate to heavy rain and a slight chance for thunderstorms late
   tonight through Thursday

 - Strong southerly wind gusts up to 50-60 mph may cause property
   damage, downed tree limbs, and difficult travel conditions

 - Cool and unsettled weather Friday and through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
(Today and tonight)

The picture from space this morning is absolutely mesmerizing. You
can clearly see the upcoming pattern change. High clouds continue to
stream in ahead of a deepening upper level low over the Pacific.
Radar shows light echos passing over portions of northern and
central CA at this time; however, soundings show a decent dry pocket
beneath the high clouds. Chances for rain will slowly increase
throughout the day, from north to south. The more prominent time for
rain will begin late tonight and into Thursday as the continues to
deepen and dig southwards as it moves towards the west coast. What
we can expect moderate to potentially heavy rain at times, and
perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. In terms of rainfall totals from
4AM this morning to 4AM Friday, the forecast amount has come up. The
North Bay will see between 1.25-5.0 inches, with the larger amounts
occuring in the higher portions of the and orographically favored
terrain. East Bay amounts vary from 0.75-2.25 inches with the higher
amounts expected over the terrain. From the San Francisco
Peninsula, Santa Cruz, and into the South Bay look for 1.25-3.5
inches. And finally for Monterey and San Benito amounts vary from
0.75-5.25". With that being said, the WPC has added a Slight Risk of
heavy rainfall around the Bay Area which may lead to poor drainage
and urban flooding due to runoff. This matches well with some of the
hi-res models and HREF where it pinpoints the potential for flooding
parts of northern California. For those commuting in the morning, be
prepared for rain and consider allowing extra time for your commute.

In addition to the rain, this system is expected to pack a potent
punch with winds. The strongest winds will be along our coastline,
especially from the North Bay Coast, including the Marin Hills, down
the San Francisco Peninsula. Here we can expected to see wind gusts
reaching 55 to 60 miles per hour, with gusts up to 70 mph possible
at favored coastal and higher terrain locations. A High Wind Warning
will go into effect from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday
morning. Elsewhere a Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 PM
tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
45 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)

As the front works its way through the region, we`ll be left with
post-frontal showers in its wake. An upper level trough looks to
meander over southern CA through Friday, and perhaps into the
weekend. Ensemble guidance shows either shows troughing or weak
zonal flow through early next week. This should lead to cooler
weather and unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Lower level cooling is deepening the stratus layer allowing for
more widespread MVFR-VFR though there are still a few locations
with IFR ceilings. Unlike early Tuesday, coastal fog/mist is quite
limited this morning. MVFR-VFR prevails today, tonight and with
early hints of showers arriving near 12z Thursday except for
steadier rain potentially developing at SFO and OAK 30 hour TAFs
post 12z Thursday. Strengthening southerly winds developing during
the 12z TAFs though timing of mix down of gusty winds is currently
a low confidence forecast. Surface winds may decouple from winds
aloft resulting in non-convective low level wind shear (llws); llws
not indicated currently in TAFs, but later forecast cycles may need
to consider adding low level wind shear.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR today. MVFR tonight and Thursday morning
with rain showers developing and gusty south to southeast winds
also developing though timing initially gusty winds is a low
confidence forecast. Probability guidance is leaning toward
surface winds nearing 35 knots tonight and Thursday best chances
near cold frontal passage Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR in stratus clouds with light
winds this morning. Southeast winds and VFR prevailing this
afternoon and evening, winds becoming gusty in the Salinas Valley
including light showers developing late tonight and Thursdsay
morning for the 12z TAFs. Southeasterly winds often result in high
based clouds at Salinas Airport particularly before the arrival of
a surface cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

A rapidly deepening storm system will develop 400 miles northwest
of San Francisco later today, tonight and Thursday. A strong cold
front associated with this storm will move eastward across the
waters and bays later tonight and Thursday with gales to storm
force winds, heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms. This
will result in very hazardous marine conditions across all waters
beginning this evening and lasting into Thursday. Winds ease
Friday, but the larger swell will continue to build with seas up
to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Wave bulletins recently are showing potential for hazardous surf
conditions developing late to very late Thursday night and Friday.
However, currently it`s a low confidence forecast as to whether
we`ll reach beach hazard criteria or possibly high surf advisory
criteria. Complicating the forecast is in situ rapidly deepening
low pressure development 400 miles northwest of San Francisco that
has itself rapidly evolved just since the weekend, and part of
potentially hazardous surf may be related to the local wind field
in the vicinity of the storm developing in the nearest term. Wave
model forecasts also currently show much of the wave energy over
the offshore waters passing by to our west late this week which
may help mitigate coastal hazards. Please stay tuned to further
updates.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday
     for CAZ006-502-505-509.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ503-504-506-508-510-512>518-528>530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this
     afternoon for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10
     nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Thursday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST this evening for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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