311
FXUS66 KMTR 160500
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1000 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

 - Gradual warming and drying trend into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)

A gradual warming and drying trend is forecast over the next few
days as high pressure over builds westward over the Four Corners
region. However, a modest marine layer is forecast to persist and
result in cooler conditions near the coast. Near the coast,
temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s, bayshore
and coastal valleys are likely to warm into the low 70s to low
80s, and mid 80s to low 90s across the far interior. Breezy
onshore winds are expected each afternoon and evening with gusts
to between 20-30 mph in the favored gaps/passes and down the
Salinas Valley.

Tonight, expecting another round of drizzle and/or mist along the
coast and in the favored upslope coastal regions of the Bay Area.
Temperatures will largely cool into the 50s to low 60s. As
stratus retreats to the coastline by mid-to-late morning and early
afternoon on Sunday, expecting temperatures to be a few degrees
warmer than Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
(Monday through next Friday)

A more notable warming and drying trend will begin on Tuesday as the
mid/upper level ridge builds further to the west and spreads
over the Desert Southwest. However, lingering troughiness off of
the Pacific Northwest will maintain a shallow marine layer and
afternoon temperatures slightly below average throughout much of
next week. Overnight/morning minimum temperatures will be near
normal. Above the marine layer`s influences, dry conditions are
expected especially Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Mostly IFR-LIFR stratus is expanding through the Petaluma Gap, into
the SF Bay region, and across the southern Monterey Bay. Stratus is
expected to continue developing through the night with clearing
expected in the late morning hours on Sunday. Lingering onshore
breezes will diminish to a light wind overnight. Moderate onshore
winds will resume Sunday afternoon and evening, with a compressing
marine layer resulting in lower ceilings and limited development
inland, especially in the interior East Bay, as the marine layer
clouds return Sunday night.

Vicinity of SFO... IFR stratus through the night will clear out late
Sunday morning with moderate and potentially gusty west-northwest
winds resuming in the afternoon. Low confidence in the timing of IFR-
LIFR stratus return Sunday evening and overnight with high
resolution model output showing the stratus deck developing right at
the edge of the terminal.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR stratus with light winds
continues overnight. Stratus will mix out late Sunday morning and
early afternoon (moderate confidence at MRY, high confidence at
SNS), with breezy northwest winds expected in the afternoon and
evening hours. Expect stratus to return rather early Sunday evening
with IFR-LIFR ceilings expected.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze persists through Sunday
with localized fresh gusts possible across the interior waters. A
long period southerly swell of about 15 to 17 seconds will linger
through Sunday. Winds increase to fresh to strong beginning
Monday and remain elevated through the end of the forecast period.
Seas of around 4 to 5 feet will build to 7 to 9 feet mid week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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