091
FXUS66 KMTR 300310
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
810 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

 - A Tsunami Advisory is in effect for the Bay Area and Central
   Coast due to an 8.8 magnitude earthquake off the coast of
   Russia.


 - Stay away from the coast! Stay away from beaches and waterways!

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

A Tsunami Advisory is in effect for the Bay Area and Central Coast
due to an 8.8 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Russia. Stay
away from the coast! Stay away from beaches and waterways! Remain
away from shore until local officials tell you it`s OK to return.

Remember!

- A tsunami is a series of waves carrying a large mass of water.
  This will NOT be a single wave and the first wave will NOT be
  the biggest.

- Even if wave heights are low, dangerous and powerful currents
  are possible in the ocean and at the beach.

- Do NOT try to go to the coast to take photos! You will not just
  put yourself at risk, you will put the people who have to rescue
  you at risk.

Tsunami Hazard Zone Maps are available at:
https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/tsunami/maps

Tsunami Warning Center:
tsunami.gov

Follow us on social media for updated information.

Sarment

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1239 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025
(This evening through Wednesday)

Satellite imagery shows lingering stratus clouds along parts of the
immediate coastline from Point Reyes south through the Big Sur
coastline, with the rest of the region generally clear. High
temperatures today range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s in the
inland valleys, up to the 90s in some of the warmer spots, the
middle 60s to the middle 70s close to the Bays, and the upper 50s to
the lower 60s at the Pacific coast. These lie near or slightly below
seasonal averages for late July; for context, the mean high
temperature for downtown San Francisco on July 29 is 66, with a
forecast high of... 66 today. Spare a thought for those people east
of the Rocky Mountains who are dealing with temperatures and heat
indices above 100 degrees right now. Tonight`s lows remain in the
lower to middle 50s in the lower elevations up to the middle 60s in
the higher elevations, while the highs tomorrow should be similar to
today`s high temperatures. Breezy winds will develop each afternoon
and evening with gusts reaching 20-30 miles per hour along the
coast, through gaps and passes, and within the Salinas Valley. A
shortwave upper-level trough should develop later today, allowing
the marine layer to expand and enhancing the development of inland
stratus overnight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1239 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Wash, rinse, repeat. Upper-level troughing continues to dominate our
weather pattern through the first days of August, leading to a
stable forecast with temperatures remaining near or slightly below
the seasonal average, combined with cloudy mornings giving way to
breezy afternoons and evenings. Towards the latter half of the week,
increased moisture from a low currently near the Gulf of Alaska
could result in enhanced overnight and morning stratus coverage, but
aside from that, there would be no other changes to sensible weather
impacts for the 7 day forecast period.

From the previous forecaster: One thing that is worth a mention is
the chance for offshore winds just after the long term period by the
middle of next week. There is a weak signal suggesting the ridge
over the western CONUS begins to break down and an upper low moves
into the western Great Basin. This would promote a weak offshore
pressure gradient, which would lead to some degree of warmer and
drier offshore wind for us. While this is 7+ days out and still a
weak signal, we aren`t nailing anything down just yet. Just wanted
to make note of this since we are entering the time of year where
impactful offshore winds are historically more likely. Stay tuned
for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Quiet and VFR conditions through the early evening, with stratus
making a return to the coastal sites this evening and the gradually
spreading inland late overnight or early Monday morning. The daily
retreat is expected by mid to late morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has started return around the northern
portion of SFO which may signal an early arrival stratus. This
fares well with the gusty westerly winds of 25 to 30kt through the
early evening. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected tonight, the
question now will be timing as it has already started to creep in.
Stratus will should clear out around 18Z tomorrow, with stratus
returning potentially as early as 0Z Jul 31.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus flirts around the southern half the
Monterey Bay this evening, with KSNS and KMTR starting to see
them sneak into the vicnity. Another night of MVFR to IFR is
expected with potentially only KSNS clearing before 18Z. &&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Widespread moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes with strong
gusts will pose hazardous conditions for small craft through the
week for the outer waters and coastal jet regions. For the bays,
strong gusts will come in the form of the diurnally driven
afternoon sea breeze. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Widespread moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes with strong
gusts will pose hazardous conditions for small craft through the
week for the outer waters and coastal jet regions. For the bays,
strong gusts will come in the form of the diurnally driven
afternoon sea breeze. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through
Saturday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...RW

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