197
FXUS66 KMTR 211938
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1138 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1137 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025

Another dry day across the region. Chance for light rain in the
North Bay late Saturday through Sunday, and again on Monday.
Otherwise, the forecast remains dry with a warming trend through the
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1137 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025

Mostly clear skies prevail over the Bay Area and Central Coast, with
a few cirrus clouds in the sky. Today should be a dry and clear day
with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to the lower 70s
across the inland valleys, the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific
coast and Bayshore, and the upper 50s to the lower 60s in the higher
elevations. Winds will be light with a slight onshore breeze
developing during the afternoon before light offshore and valley
drainage flows resume overnight.

Low temperatures on Saturday morning range from the upper 30s to
lower 40s in the inland valleys, to the middle to upper 40s along
the coasts and in the higher elevations. Saturday will be an equally
dry day with a slight warming across the inland valleys of the South
Bay and Central Coast, where highs will reach the lower to middle
70s, otherwise highs remain similar to today`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1137 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025

The long term forecast has not changed appreciably since the last
update. The previous long term discussion follows for reference:

Upper level zonal flow through the weekend and into early next week
due to additional shortwaves moving across the PacNW. This may bring
a few light showers to far northern Sonoma and Napa counties Sunday
into Monday, though if that were to happen rainfall amount generally
appear to be negligible to perhaps a few couple hundredths of an
inch. Otherwise, dry and warmer weather persists. Upper level
ridging builds by midweek. Agree with the previous shift in that
high temperatures will be worth watching out for given the
proximity to the records. For now, kept the NBM forecast in, but
should the trends continue to lean warmer we may need to bump the
forecast up a few degrees.

By late week or next weekend, guidance from ensemble and
deterministic models shows a cut off low developing and tracking
over CA. It`s too early to say where but it could bring a few
showers to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 925 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR through much of the TAF period. Generally light winds this
morning will become onshore this afternoon with no notable gusts to
speak of. Otherwise, winds will diminish tonight and become variable
at times into Saturday morning. Low confidence of lower
ceilings/visibilities Saturday morning, generally using SCT to
capture the potential as a weak upper level trough approaches the
region. Onshore winds look to return to the region by Saturday
afternoon with any low clouds that do develop dissipating.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light winds will turn onshore by this
afternoon. Winds ease by late this evening and into Saturday morning
with a slight potential for low ceilings to develop, will cover with
SCT. Onshore winds increase once again by Saturday afternoon and any
low clouds that do develop will dissipate.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through much of the TAF period. Light
winds will turn onshore by this afternoon. Winds ease into the
overnight with SCT developing by 11Z Saturday over KMRY. Drainage
winds are also forecast to develop at KSNS early Saturday morning
and become onshore by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 853 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2025

Seas and winds continue to ease through the weekend with fair
conditions lasting into the early part of next week. A new,
moderate northwesterly swell enters the waters by Tuesday next
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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