114
FXUS66 KMTR 191156
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
356 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Mainly dry weather through Wednesday, with a few isolated showers
   being possible.

 - More beneficial type rain late Wednesday through Thursday.

 - Dry weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
(Today and tonight)

Cloudy and cool to start the day around the Bay Area and Central.
Today will be a transition day weather wise as one storm system
exits SoCal and another storm system approaches from the
northwest. Initially the region will be in a squeeze play with
shortwave ridging overhead. Despite some ridging overhead, areas
that are starting off cloudy have a high likelihood of remaining
cloud through the afternoon. Through the afternoon the upstream
storm system will inch its way closer to the coast. The associated
cold front will also inch closer.

Latest forecast timing brings some pre-cold frontal showers to the
North Bay just in time for the evening commute. The leading edge
of precip will be warm sector scout showers. The main moisture
push is still expected later tonight and early Thursday. Expect a
rather wet overnight period as the fropa begins. The fropa will
bring a brief period of moderate to locally heavy rain. Not
expecting any rates to be high enough to cause issues on the
Pickett Burn Area. Unlike the last system as the front slides S
through the forecast area rainfall intensity will diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Wet start to the day Thursday as the aforementioned cold front is
traversing the forecast area. Biggest impacts will be to the
Thursday AM commute. Minor ponding and a lower chance for
nuisance urban flooding. By late Thursday afternoon precip will
taper off from N to S behind the departing front. While there are
some high PWATs associated with the fropa AR guidance doesn`t
appear to be high enough to be an AR. Overall, still looking like
more beneficial rain than hazardous. Amounts are still roughly
the same a tenth or two most areas and up to a half inch N Bay Mts
and coastal mts. Weak instability will be present with the fropa,
but current thinking is any thunder chances will be less than 15
percent so no thunder is in the forecast.

Outside of precip, the front will bring an uptick in winds, but no
where near the wind conditions with the last two systems. Gusts
of 30-40 mph will occur along the coast and higher terrain.

Drier conditions develop by early Friday. Dry and warm develop
lasting into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 356 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

MVFR at most sites as stratus spreads in across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. CIGs are largely expected to stick around the entire
day but will transition from MVFR to VFR by late morning/early
afternoon. MVFR conditions return overnight as a weak cold front
passes through the region. This front will bring light rain to the
Bay Area and showers farther south. Guidance is indicating
reductions in visibility to around 4SM as the rain starts up but
this is more likely to be temporary with visibility fluctuating up
and down. For now, reduced visibilities to 6SM as rain starts up but
a tempo may be needed for lower visibilities as we get closer to
front arrival time. Winds generally remain light out of the south to
southwest before turning northwesterly after frontal passage early
tomorrow morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has filled in over the SF Bay with MVFR
conditions at SFO. Moderate confidence that stratus will prevail
through late morning/early afternoon. VFR will persist through the
rest of the afternoon/evening before rain and MVFR CIGs return
tonight ahead of cold frontal passage. Southerly winds prevail for
much of the day before switching to northwesterly tomorrow morning
after cold frontal passage.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR at MRY, MVFR at SNS. Interesting
stratus pattern over the Monterey Peninsula this morning. CIGs are
largely MVFR but have started to rise at MRY. Confidence is low to
moderate that CIGs will lower again at MRY this morning. VFR
prevails late morning through tomorrow night with frontal passage to
occur between 09-12Z. Rain chances increase and MVFR returns ahead
of frontal passage. For now put the front arriving around 10Z in the
TAF but some guidance suggests this could be pushed back closer to
12Z. Winds briefly become onshore during the afternoon before
southerly winds return this evening into the overnight period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Conditions improve across the marine environment today with winds
diminishing and seas abating. Improvements will only be temporary
with hazardous marine conditions returning late Wednesday as a
weak  storm system moves through the coastal waters. Rain is
expected  overnight Wednesday into Thursday with thunderstorms not
anticipated. This system will bring a return of moderate winds
with  strong gusts Wednesday night through Friday before winds
abate  heading into the weekend. Seas build to between 10 to 15
feet  Thursday remain elevated into early next week. Elevate seas
will be  prolonged by the arrival of two distinct rounds of long
period, very  high northwesterly swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Monday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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