119
FXUS66 KMTR 101733
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1033 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

 - Elevated fire weather conditions in the higher terrain Monday

 - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco
   Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning

 - Cooling trend through Thursday will bring well below normal
   temperatures

 - Up to a 10% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms
   Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026
(Today and tonight)

Upper-level shortwave troughing developing off the West Coast Monday
will kickoff the cooling trend. The 1,000 foot marine layer will
likely remain steady, at least initially, with drizzle possible in
the mornings. The aforementioned troughing will result in an
increase of onshore flow with gusts up to 30 mph in the
afternoon/evening through gaps/passes and across ridgelines. This
will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the higher
terrain coming off the heels of very hot and dry conditions. Minor
coastal flooding is expected during the highest high tide
(evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco
Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)

A reinforcing trough Wednesday will bring widespread below normal
temperatures and deepen the marine layer. Global ensemble clusters
are in agreement that heights and subsequently temperatures will
fall through Thursday as it digs. An increase in monsoonal/sub-
tropical moisture is bringing a low (up to 10%) chance for elevated
rain showers/thunderstorms with ingredients seemingly only marginal
as of now. Best chances look to be Wednesday through Thursday and
would likely favor the far southern and eastern parts of the area as
the conveyor belt of moisture stays between troughing to the west
and ridging to the east. While confidence is low, this would be a
high-impact scenario with gusty outflow winds and the potential for
new fire starts. It`s going to be a fair fight going into the
weekend between a reinforcing trough off the West Coast and a
rebuilding ridge across a majority of the rest of CONUS. The
official forecast has a slight warming trend into the weekend, most
noticeable across the Interior Central Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Lingering IFR-LIFR stratus is dissipating across the North Bay
valleys, the San Francisco Bay, and the northern Salinas Valley, and
the mixing out is expected to continue through the morning as the
stratus deck pares back to the immediate coastal region. Moderate
onshore pattern winds will develop during the afternoon and evening
hours with gusts of 15 to 25 kt. Stratus will return inland during
the evening and overnight hours. Moderate confidence in the high
resolution model output that keeps most of the SF Bay clear through
the night.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the evening hours. Light offshore
flow will turn to the west-northwest with gusts of 25 kt during the
afternoon and evening hours. High resolution model output keeps the
terminal area clear through the night as southwest winds develop
aloft, there is moderate confidence in the forecast at this time.
Tuesday afternoon, expect breezy and gusty winds to resume with a
southwest component, leading to lower confidence on wind direction
this far out.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR at SNS through the daytime, MRY will
clear out within the next couple of hours. Gentle onshore winds will
develop in the afternoon and evening. IFR-LIFR stratus returns
rather early in the evening, with some high resolution model output
seeing stratus returning to MRY as early as 01-02Z. Clearing is
expected to be delayed to near or slightly after the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1033 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Fresh to strong northwest winds persist through Thursday with
rough seas up to 12 feet over the northern outer waters and
occasionally the inner waters north of Point Reyes. The San Pablo,
Suisun Bays and the Delta will continue to see gusty onshore
winds through the early evening hours. Long period southerly
swells around 15 seconds will continue through much of the work
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions persist Monday across the higher
terrain due to an increase in onshore flow on the heels of very hot
and dry conditions. Slow improvement is expected with temperatures
still 10 degrees above normal and minimum relative humidity of 15%-
30% Monday afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph can be expected through
gaps/passes and across ridgelines; namely, the Delta, Altamont Pass,
Pacheco Pass, and Interior Mountains of Monterey and San Benito
Counties. Moderate overnight recovery is expected Monday night;
however, the highest terrain of the Central Coast will likely remain
poor.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
     508-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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