736
FXUS66 KMTR 231616
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
816 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Light showers ending this morning over the North Bay. Mild to warm
and quiet conditions persist with high temperatures 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal normals by midweek. Next chance for
widespread rain potentially next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Weak radar returns are coming in across the North Bay from KMUX
radar. However, no precipitation is reaching the surface per ground
observations. Trace amounts are most likely with this activity as
conditions remain dry in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.
Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track this morning with
no updates anticipated.

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Current radar showing isolated light showers continuing across the
North Bay, which may linger into the mid-morning hours. Any
accumulation is expected to be very light. Otherwise a pretty nice
little Sunday. High temps a few degrees above normal, especially
inland Central Coast where a few locations in the southern Salinas
Valley and interior MoCo could see the 80 degree mark. Further
north, thicker cloud cover will result in more mild temps, but still
warm for the time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Unseasonably warm temps continue through midweek as a strong high
pressure ridge resides over the southwest US. This helps to keep a
parade of upper troughs well to our north, and any hopes of
measurable (light) rainfall fairly confined to the North Bay on
Monday. By late Tuesday, an elongated upper trough in the Gulf of
Alaska begins to dig into the EPac and approach the West Coast.
This ultimately amplifies the downstream flow over the continental
West Coast and results in a fairly high amplitude ridge through
the middle of the week. The sensible weather result will be high
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Wednesday. A
progressive pattern remains, so don`t worry about the ridge
becoming parked for too long. The aforementioned upper trough
eventually closes off from the main flow and meanders about SoCal.
Long term ensemble guidance advertises this with reasonable
certainty. The uncertain element is where exactly the low will
meander and for how long. Back to sensible weather; outside of
some light offshore winds late in the week, this cut off low
really shouldn`t be too much of a nuisance. Main things will be
less cloud cover in the North Bay, so high temps will increase by
a few degrees there as we get into the end of the week.

Beyond The Little Cut Off Low That Could, a pattern change in the
favor of wetter weather appears on the horizon at the turn of the
month. With reasonable support from cluster analysis, it`s safe to
say that the West Coast will very likely expect wet weather to some
degree for this first weekend of March. Details lack given that
we`re looking at D7-8, but it is looking likely that this is our
next window for more active weather. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 220 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Mixed skies and light winds through the TAF period. MVFR/IFR cigs
expected this morning and Monday morning. Slightly higher confidence
in cig reductions Monday morning but still not quite high confidence
overall thanks to a mix a mid and high level clouds that will affect
radiational cooling overnight. Chance of showers in the North Bay
through mid-morning today, ending by midday.

Vicinity of SFO...Slight chance of MVFR/IFR cigs this morning,
likely ending in the 16Z hour. Better chance of impactful cigs
tonight into Monday morning as another weak disturbance aloft
approaches. Winds remain light to breezy onshore (NW).

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Current satellite showing very isolated
pockets of marine stratus around the Monterey Bay. Overall expecting
VFR today outside of these very isolated cigs this morning. Higher
confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs tonight into Monday morning as the next
weak upper level disturbance approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 814 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Lingering shower activity exits into the afternoon. Winds and
seas remain relatively calm through early monday. Another chance
for light rain in the northern waters Monday as a weak upper level
disturbance moves through the region. Moderate northwesterly
swell returns to the coastal waters by Tuesday, bringing waves
between 10 to 14 feet at about 14 seconds, leading to rough seas
and hazardous conditions for small craft.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 AM PST Tuesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 AM PST Tuesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Murdock

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