850
FXUS66 KMTR 111136
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
336 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1110 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Friday

 - Tule fog and stratus continue for the North and East Bay

 - Wetter pattern expected to begin next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1110 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
(Tonight through Friday)

Different day, same weather. Tule fog continues to fill the Central
Valley with spill over through the Delta and across the Valleys in
the East Bay and North Bay. The visibility is already less than a
mile at Livermore and Santa Rosa airports with a good chance to
worsen through the night. As we`ve seen over the last several
days, the fog and clouds should erode for most in the afternoon,
but may linger along the Delta and San Pablo Bay regions. Anywhere
in the fog will continue to deal with cold temperatures while
those areas in full sunshine will quickly warm well above normal.
The 00Z sounding found a surface temperature of 56 degrees while
the temperature at 3,000 feet was 70 degrees. This strong
inversion continues to make the max temperature forecast
challenging with some areas up to 10 degrees cooler than normal
and others up to 10 degrees warmer. We continue to rely heavily on
the persistence forecast which has been performing better than
any model recently.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1110 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

The forecast remains fairly consistent through Friday before the
ridge axis finally slides to our East. This won`t have a drastic
effect immediately, but the temperatures should cool a couple
degrees through the weekend. By Sunday or Monday we should start
to see some high clouds, indicating that the ridge has flattened
and zonal flow has moved in. This new pattern should help scour
out the persistent fog. We also expect some light rain early next
week, particularly across the North Bay. The most interesting
development in the forecast is in the extended long range, where
there is a moderate chance for an atmospheric river late next
week. It`s too early to talk about specific impacts or timing, but
the Climate Predication Center has placed the Bay Area in a
moderate risk for both heavy precipitation and strong winds from
12/18-12/21. The bullseye looks like far northern California, but
that has been trending south over the last few model updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 327 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

Another rinse and repeat setup today with a short period of
clearing tonight for North Bay terminals and return of fog and
stratus overnight tonight with IFR/LIFR cigs and vis. Some signs
point towards a later return, but confidence in this timing is
low.

Vicinity of SFO...Anticipating patchy stratus and fog along the SF
Peninsula this morning through sunrise. Low chance of actually
impacting the terminal. If any impacts do arise, they`ll likely be
IFR cigs invof the terminal for a short period just after sunrise.
Otherwise VFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High confidence in VFR through the TAF
period. Light drainage offshore winds overnight with light onshore
flow during the afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

High pressure off the coast will maintain northerly fresh breezes
across the outer coastal waters with light to gentle breezes near
shore. Light offshore winds will continue from the Delta to the
San Francisco Bay and through the Golden Gate. A new, long period
northwesterly swell will last into this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1110 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

Long period NW swell is causing hazardous beach conditions
through Friday. This energy brings strong rip currents, an
increased risk for sneaker waves, and large breaking waves. This
coincides with nice warm weather, which will likely lure more
people to the beach under a false sense of security. A Beach
Hazard Statement is in effect through Friday evening. Respect the
power of the ocean and never turn your back on it.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea