


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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232 FXUS66 KMTR 100449 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 949 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - Minor to moderate HeatRisk for the Interior Bay Area and Central Coast. - Localized elevated fire weather conditions for the Interior Bay Area and Central Coast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The marine layer has compressed to around 1000 feet with much less widespread stratus coverage across the region tonight than last night. Temperatures are running anywhere from 3 degrees warmer tonight than at this time last night across the lower elevations to up to 23 degrees warmer across the higher elevations. Some drizzle is possible overnight into tomorrow morning directly along the coastline but chances decrease heading inland. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast with above normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday. Moderate HeatRisk is expected across urban areas in the Bay Area, North Bay Interior Mountains, and higher elevations of Monterey and San Benito Counties. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 130 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 (This evening through Thursday) The warming trend kicks off today as as an area of broad high pressure extending from the Desert Southwest to the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds into place. Effects of this are already being observed with locations outside of the marine layer influence observing warmer conditions than what were observed 24 hours ago as well as the marine layer compressing about 600 feet in 24 hours which is indicative of subsidence aloft. Yet, temperatures will still remain near to below normal for all but the highest terrain today. Fog will return to coastal and valley locations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 130 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures peaking near 10 degrees above normal. Friday will be cooler for all but the farthest interior portions of the area as the axis of the longwave upper-level ridge moves inland. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement of longwave ridging developing again Saturday over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This feature will likely build through the weekend and move inland early next week. A stable pattern means more or less the same daily forecast for the long term: interior areas will get warm to hot with temperatures of 5-10 degrees above normal, elevated fire weather conditions will persist for areas above the marine layer with minimum daytime relative humidity of 20- 30% with little-to-no overnight recovery, onshore flow will be realized with the diurnally driven afternoon sea breeze, and stratus will come in every night for coastal and valley locations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 949 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 LIFR CIGS are building along the coast and have filled over HAF and the Monterey Bay terminals. Expect winds to continue to reduce into the night and become weak in the late night and early morning as moments of CIGs affect OAK and IFR CIGs fill at APC. Inland clearing begins in the mid morning with most TAF sites going VFR in the late morning and early afternoon. The exception will be HAF, which keeps CIGs through the mid afternoon. Winds look to stay light to moderate through the morning and increase into late Thursday morning and afternoon. Expect winds to reduce into Tuesday evening as IFR/MVFR CIGs begin to move inland from the coast, filling over HAF and Monterey Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds reducing to moderate speeds and become light into early Thursday morning. Breezy west winds return in the late morning, and look to last through the mid evening before becoming light to moderate again. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR CIGs with light winds last through the night with pockets of mist and drizzle affecting visibilities into the morning. Winds become moderate into mid to late Thursday morning as CIGs erode over the terminals, but expect cloud cover to linger over the Monterey Bay itself until the mid afternoon. Winds weaken again into Thursday evening with IFR CIGs building over MRY with SNS seeing CIGs later that night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 548 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Winds are increasing across the waters becoming fresh to strong. These winds will maintain strength through Thursday and into Friday for most areas, but will increase to gale-strength for the northern outer waters into early Friday. Expect building rough seas in the exposed waters alongside these building winds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 8 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea