039
FXUS66 KMTR 071849
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1049 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - Light rain possible in the North Bay this morning

 - Tidally influenced coastal flooding and hazardous beach
   conditions continue through Saturday

 - Pleasant weather through the weekend will yield to an unsettled
   weather pattern for the middle of next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

Went ahead and canceled the Dense Fog Advisory for the
North Bay Interior Valleys as widespread dense fog is no longer
anticipated. Light rain continues over the North Bay, especially
the favored upslope areas of the region. However, this will
primarily occur through the morning before diminishing in
coverage by this afternoon. Low clouds across the North Bay and
Bay Area are forecast to gradually clear by late morning or early
afternoon and give way to mostly sunny skies across the region.
This will result in a slight warming trend with afternoon
temperatures expected to be in the low- to- mid 70s across the
interior and 60s near the coast, up to 6 degrees above normal. No
other updates are anticipated at this time.

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1244 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery reveals low clouds across the North Bay valleys,
with scattered stratus extending down into parts of San Francisco
and the western side of Oakland, with additional patches across
central San Benito County to the south of Hollister. Farther afield,
a weak cold front is coming through the North Coast and will keep
together just long enough to bring a chance for light rain across
the western parts of the North Bay this morning, particularly the
Sonoma coastal ranges and the Mayacamas, with chances for
orographically-induced showers extending as far south as the Half
Moon Bay region. Accumulations will be light, around a few
hundredths of an inch at most.

Light offshore flow has also developed across the higher elevations
of the Central Coast, with northeasterly winds  at the 925 mb level.
As for the Bay Area, the SFO-WMC gradient was +4.2 mb as of
midnight, and remains generally onshore through the late afternoon
and evening hours today. This timeframe is also when the 925 mb
winds will turn towards the northeast. In any case, fire weather
concerns remain low with the fire weather indices remaining below
seasonal averages.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that there is little to
no significant sensible weather concerns for today, with the upper
level pattern transitioning from more zonal flow to a ridging
pattern through the day. Morning low clouds across the Bay Area will
retreat to the immediate coast into the afternoon. High temperatures
reach the lower to middle 70s across the inland valleys, up to the
upper 70s in the southern Salinas Valley, with the Bays seeing highs
in the upper 60s to lower 70s and the lower 60s prevailing across
the Pacific Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1244 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

The ridge will build into the weekend, and will contribute to more
general offshore flow across the region, resulting in clear skies
and temperatures warmer than the seasonal average through Monday.
Highs across the inland valleys reach the middle 70s to the middle
80s with the Bays seeing highs in the lower 70s to the lower 80s,
and mid to upper 60s prevailing at the coast. The thermal belts will
also activate with mild overnight lows in the higher elevations
Saturday morning through Tuesday morning.

Monday night into Tuesday will mark the start of the ridge eroding,
allowing a deep upper level low to form in the east Pacific and
impact the West Coast beginning Wednesday. All model guidance
generally agrees that the rain should start light in the North Bay
before spreading southward with increasing coverage and intensity.
There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact impacts of this
system, and in particular, ensemble model cluster analysis is
beginning to note a significant strand of model guidance that keeps
rain chances around through Saturday the 15th. However, most model
and Atmospheric River guidance continues to lean towards the
beneficial side of the impacts to our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

Overcast conditions continue in the North Bay and at HAF while other
sites are clearing. Expect cloud cover to continue to erode into the
afternoon leading to VFR for all but HAF, which keeps CIGs through
early Saturday morning. Expect moderate winds for the afternoon that
reduce into the evening. Cloud cover will be slow to rebuild
overnight but CIGs look to reestablish for all but LVK and the
Monterey Bay terminals into Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR and moderate winds arrive into the afternoon.
Winds reduce in the early evening, becoming light into the night.
Expect winds to become light and variable into early Saturday as IFR
CIGs fill over the terminal and around the SF Bay. Cloud cover will
persist into Saturday afternoon, but VFR conditions and moderate
winds are expected for the rest of that day.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Moderate winds
build into the afternoon and last into the evening before reducing.
An eddy over the bay looks to keep low clouds only over the bay
itself and prevent cloud cover from building over the terminals.
Light winds last through the night and into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 917 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

Expect rough seas to continue across the coastal waters with
moderate period WNW swell persisting. Seas will gradually ease to
moderate by Saturday with more favorable conditions expected to
continue into the beginning of next week. Winds stay light to
moderate through the middle of the next work week but build again
in the late week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1048 AM PST Thu Nov 7 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will persist through Saturday for all
coastal beaches. Expect an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents as well as breaking waves up to 25 feet. Remain out
of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, stay off of
jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure, and never turn
your back on the ocean! The increased risk for sneaker waves and
rip currents will linger Friday through early Saturday morning
with westerly swell quickly rebuilding.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-
     508-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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