141
FXUS66 KMTR 031858
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1058 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Preparations for upcoming storm should be prioritized for today
   in Northern Sonoma and Napa. Areas south of Santa Rosa still
   have time Tuesday.

 - Mostly beneficial rainfall beginning early Wednesday morning.
   Slight potential for localized nuisance flooding in the North
   Bay.

 - Wind Advisory in effect late Tuesday night through Wednesday
   afternoon for North Bay, East Bay, SF Peninsula, and Santa Cruz
   Mtns. Gusty wind 35-45 mph with potential for brief 55 mph
   gusts along frontal passage Wednesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

Once again patchy to areas of dense fog persist this morning around
the Monterey Bay region, along coastal areas, and in the North Bay
valleys. These conditions are expected to improve by around 10 AM
PST and give way to mostly sunny skies by this afternoon. However, a
slight cool down from yesterday`s maximum temperatures by a few
degrees as more widespread onshore flow returns to the region. No
updates to the ongoing forecast at this time.

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1224 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025
(Today and tonight)

Another morning of mostly clear conditions with isolated patches
of fog along the coast. Temperatures return to normal today as
onshore flow is reinforced and we start to feel the effects of the
approaching weather system. We will see the marine layer deepen
through the next couple of days as additional moisture is advected
into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1224 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Tuesday will be our transition day into impactful weather. A
potent early season system will be digging its way into our
region. Light showers may begin as early as late Tuesday morning
across the northern reaches of Napa and Sonoma counties. These
showers will mostly be the result of orographic lift over the
terrain and will not contain the heaviest of the rain that we`re
expecting. How much rain we see out of these early showers will be
important for the rest of the event since they may increase the
likelihood of local flooding once the heavier rainfall arrive
Wednesday morning. Most of these early, prefrontal showers should
remain well to our north, but where this axis of enhanced moisture
transport sets up is still a bit uncertain. By late Tuesday, the
cold front dives southward, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall
and wind with it. Winds increase through the night Tuesday with
the heaviest rain and strongest wind expected to push through the
North Bay in the early morning hours just before sunrise, and the
rest of the Bay Area by sunrise.

Rainfall totals look to be mostly beneficial with a slight chance
for localized nuisance flooding in the North Bay, especially
dependent on how much warm sector rain we see on Tuesday. A spread
of 1-2" for the North Bay, isolated up to 2.5" in the northern
Sonoma coastal range. The rest of the Bay Area will likely end up
more in the 0.50-1.0" range, and 0.25-0.50" for the Santa Clara
Valley and Central Coast.

Regarding wind...we have issued a Wind Advisory for the North Bay,
East Bay, SF Peninsula, and Santa Cruz Mtns in effect from 10 PM
Tuesday to 4 PM Wednesday. Once again not much change in the
forecast, so we`re just consolidating our confidence intervals at
this point. Overall looking at gusts to 35-45 mph across these
areas with isolated gusts to 55 mph as the cold front passes
through Wednesday morning. This serves as a good reminder and now
is a good time to clean up any loose tree branches and other
debris that may be tossed around by the wind. Be mindful for the
morning commute and home/personal safety if you live in or travel
through treed areas. It`s never to early in the season to be
vigilant.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

Pesky stratus lingers across the coast and in some valleys,
leaving TAF sites with a mix of LIFR to VFR conditions. Models
were struggling this morning as many didn`t identify the extent of
the low cloud and visibility, making the forecast tricky. As a
result, much of the forecast is based off of the GFSLamp, MOS, and
timing tool. Most areas should clear by 21Z with some uncertainty
around the Monterey Bay. VFR conditions should then through the
late afternoon and early evening hours, with the signal for low
clouds returning late this evening or early Tuesday morning for
all terminals but KLVK and KSJC. The question remains, will it be
as widespread with another sunrise surprise of LIFR conditions or
vary between IFR and MVFR. Confidence is medium on the forecast.

Vicinity of SFO...Skies have mostly cleared around KSFO this
morning, with some stratus lingering to our west near the San Bruno
gap. VFR cigs with some lingering low cloud, say FEW005 or so, will
remain possible through the afternoon and early evening. Models all
show MVFR to perhaps IFR conditions early Tuesday morning. Opted to
go with MVFR conditions given the set up is similar to this morning.
Once skies clear, VFR conditions should prevail. Chances for rain
begin to increase after 6Z at this time.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Monterey Bay remains socked in with
stratus, with a small eddies observed in clouds. IFR conditions
are expected for the next couple of hours, with models showing
clearing after 21Z. Confidence on that is medium to low given how
satellite looks and how poorly the models handled this morning.
Should we clear "on time", VFR conditions should prevail until 6Z
or so. Stratus should make a return early Tuesday morning and
should be similar to what we saw this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

Moderate northwesterly breezes with moderate to rough seas will
prevail today. Rain showers Tuesday will turn into widespread
rainfall and a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday.
Southerly  winds will increase Tuesday with near-gale force to
gale force  sustained winds expected into Wednesday. Widespread
gale force gusts  are expected during this time with isolated
storm force gusts  possible. Seas will build to become very rough
for the inner waters  and outer waters Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 402 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

A long period northwesterly swell will continue to bring an
increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves
of up to 20 feet to Pacific Coast beaches today. High surf
conditions are possible, especially at the west and northwest
facing beaches. Remember, sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers
should always swim near a lifeguard. Stay off the rocks, remain
out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never
turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday
     for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for
     CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512-515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Wednesday for
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Sarment

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