786
FXUS66 KMTR 030942
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
142 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Gusty offshore winds still slated for late tonight through Wednesday
   morning. Generally 25-35 mph with isolated gusts to 55 mph
   along higher terrain for the interior North Bay mountains.

 - No major fire weather concerns as fuel retain good moisture after
   early November rains.

 - Dry and quiet weather persists through the weekend into mid next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 141 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery this morning shows stratus in the valleys
surrounding the Bay Area and the interior Central Coast; however,
the growth of the stratus is slowly getting cut off as the offshore
pressure gradient tightens bringing in drier air to the region.
Offshore winds have already started to ramp up for the North Bay
mountains, with the highest points in Mayacamas and Sonoma mountains
peaking around 50-55mph. Winds will continue for the rest of the Bay
Area and Santa Lucia mountains, peaking by mid morning and the
gradually decreasing as we head into the afternoon and evening.
Given the earlier rains this season, fire weather concerns remain
low due to moist fuels.


&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 141 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)

The extended forecast remains persistent, with quiet weather
returning for Thursday and lasting into next week. Ensemble
forecasts show mainly upper level ridging, with some quasi-zonal
flow at times, holding into mid to late next week. High temperatures
are seasonal for the start of the forecast period, and increase to
above average for this time of year through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

Mix of VFR and MVFR across the board tonight. The HREF has a pretty
good handle on an initial push of marine stratus along the coastline
that other high resolution models didn`t quite capture. Based on
HREF guidance, this stratus push should be fairly short lived and
clear by 10-12Z tomorrow morning as breezy offshore winds develop.
Coastal sites may see gusts to around 20-25 knots with winds peaking
early tomorrow morning and remaining breezy into the afternoon. By
the late afternoon, winds will shift more northerly before easing
overnight. Not currently anticipating fog development tomorrow night
given the influx of drier air tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR. Low confidence that stratus will
reach SFO tonight but the highest likelihood of that occuring would
be between 06-12Z. Offshore winds strengthen after 12Z which should
bring drier air to the region and clear out any lingering cloud
cover around the Bay Shoreline. Winds gust to around 20 knots during
the day before easing overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions persist through 10-11Z with
VFR through the rest of the period. Marine stratus has filtered over
both MRY and SNS with HREF guidance suggesting this push will last
through 10/11Z. Around that time winds will switch more offshore and
strengthen slightly. This should bring in drier air and clear out
ceilings over both airports. Winds shift more northerly during the
day before becoming light and, at times, variable overnight.&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

Persistent high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will cause the
moderate to strong northerly breeze to continue through tonight in
the outer coastal zones. Winds will decrease to gentle Wednesday
through Thursday before increasing back to a moderate breeze
Friday. Rough sea heights will subside by Wednesday night as
westerly swell abates.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

Persistent high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will cause the
moderate to strong northerly breeze to continue through tonight in
the outer coastal zones. Winds will decrease to gentle Wednesday
through Thursday before increasing back to a moderate breeze
Friday. Rough sea heights will subside by Wednesday night as
westerly swell abates.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 834 PM PST Tuesday Dec 2 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline
from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday
evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20
minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the
favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners
will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight
resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined
with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase
the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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