123
FXUS66 KMTR 040529
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1029 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Cloudy coastal mornings followed by breezy and clearing afternoons
will the prevailing pattern over the next few days. Coastal areas
look to peak into the 60s while more interior areas stick to the
80s. The overnights keep lows in the 50s. Expect a slight warming
and drying trend over the weekend and into the next work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

No changes to the forecast this evening as we begin to see hints
of the marine layer stratus begin to fill back in along the coast
after a series of offshore low level eddies helped clear out most
of our coastline this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
continue to be right around or even slightly below normal through
the extended forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The more active weather affecting southern Monterey County has
calmed as the high-based convection subsided and the airmass has
moved into the marine environment.

The complex of eddies flowing due west of San Francisco have pulled
much of the low stratus out to the sea, allowing for earlier
clearing than yesterday and improved coastal warming. This has also
allowed for a break in the local pattern that helped pull some of
that smoke from the Canadian wildfires into the area over the last
few days, causing some improvements in the hazier conditions.

Cloudier conditions and pockets of fog look to make a stronger
comeback tonight, but the oscillations out to sea look to prevent
cloud cover from flowing into the souther SF Bay. So while cloudy
conditions are expected from much of the North Bay, Monterey Bay,
and along the coast, SFO and Oakland as well as the South Bay look
to stay mostly clear.

The afternoon forecast package ran through the potential for coastal
drizzle and mist with a fine-toothed comb, but the pattern seems
more favorable for patches of fog into early Wednesday, especially
in the favored North Bay vallies, coastal Sonoma, and the Northern
Monterey Bay.

Aside from some additional eddy activity off the coast, the region
begins to settle into a more typical early summer pattern for the
mid week. Cloudy coasts and bays in the mornings, with breezy
afternoons, and highs ranging from the 60s on the coast to the 80s
into the interior. Some of the more interior higher elevations,
such as the Gabilan Range, will begin to see improved overnight
humidity recoveries, offering some much needed relief from the dry
days followed by fairly dry night over the last few days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 205 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The upper-level pattern leans toward a weak ridging setup into
the weekend, causing some warming and drying, but nothing extreme.
A few of the interior valleys look to peak in the low 90s, but a
still intact, yet compressed marine layer looks to mitigate mush
additional warming for the more coastal areas. In fact, the
compressing of the marine layer may wring out some coastal drizzle
in the early mornings over the weekend and into the next work
week.

Into the longer term forecast, the upper level pattern goes back to
more of a neutral/zonal flow pattern into the next work week. This
will offer some cooling and get back to that summer in San Franciso
pattern. Deeper into the next work week, models hint at another low
pressure passage which could call for more cooler and windier
conditions, but there is still more polishing that needs to be done
in that portion of the forecast, so keep checking in!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Stratus is building back in along the coastline with low to moderate
confidence as to how far inland stratus will extend. CIGs are
expected to be more widespread than the past few days with low to
moderate confidence in CIGs extending inland into STS, APC, OAK, and
SFO. Confidence is higher that stratus will reach HAF, MRY, and SNS
with a low potential for fog development early tomorrow morning. The
NAMNest and CONSShort models were doing slightly better jobs at
representing the current stratus pattern but they disagree as to the
inland extent. If the NAMNest holds true, stratus will be generally
confined to the coastline but if the CONSShort holds true, stratus
will be more widespread across the interior. This looks to be a
night where TAFs will need to be monitored closely as stratus
develops. Diurnally breezy onshore winds return during the day
tomorrow with lighter winds, at times variable to offshore, expected
overnight tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with stratus building in along the
western coast of the San Mateo Peninsula. Confidence is low to
moderate as to if stratus will reach SFO overnight with highest
confidence in stratus at least temporarily making it to SFO between
12-16Z. That being said, guidance does suggest some potential for
stratus to arrive closer to 09Z which, if that were to occur, would
likely then remain in place for the rest of the night. Confidence is
highest in MVFR CIGs but may see some IFR CIGs develop during the
early morning hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR becoming IFR-MVFR overnight.
Initial clouds moving into the Monterey Bay region are around 1000
ft with the Fort Ord Profiler showing the marine layer around 1000-
1500 ft. This is expected to compress overnight with CIGs dropping
and expanding into MRY and SNS. CIGs may initially be MVFR but
should drop to IFR by 08-09Z. There is some potential for fog and
LIFR conditions but confidence is low at this time. CIGs look to
clear between 18-20Z tomorrow before returning during the evening
hours. Winds generally stay onshore but temporarily shift offshore
to at times variable overnight as winds weaken.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1028 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Gale force winds continue over the far outer coastal waters north
of  Point Reyes with near gale force gusts expected over the outer
coastal waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point. Winds over the
outer coastal waters will decrease Wednesday into Thursday. Weaker
winds persist over the inner coastal waters and outer coastal
waters  south of Pigeon Point through the remainder of the
forecast period.  Southerly coastal jets are forecast to develop
along the Pacific  Coast near the Monterey Peninsula and also
along the Santa Cruz  coastline. This may result in pockets of
rougher seas and stronger  winds. Diurnally breezy winds redevelop
across the San Pablo Bay and  the western delta region tomorrow
afternoon which will result in  hazardous conditions for boaters.
Seas remain elevated through late  this week across the outer
waters with the highest significant wave  heights observed across
the far northern outer waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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