134
FXUS66 KMTR 081204
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
404 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Warming and drying trend through Monday

 - Tidally influenced coastal flooding and hazardous beach
   conditions continue today

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns middle of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery reveals patches of stratus holding on in several
places across the region, notably the North Bay valleys and coast,
the southern San Mateo Peninsula coastline, parts of the Santa Clara
Valley, and interior San Benito County. These patches are in
defiance of the broader scale offshore flow that is observed across
the higher elevations, and while there is a chance for further
stratus expansion, those chances are decaying as the offshore flow
dries out the lower atmosphere. Recent rainfall and the generally
mild wind speeds will limit fire weather concerns. Low temperatures
this morning will hover in the upper 40s in valleys and wind
shielded areas, with lower to middle 50s expected everywhere else.
By the afternoon hours, the skies will clear out underneath the
influence of a building upper level ridge, with highs generally
around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages, ranging from the
middle to upper 70s inland, the lower to middle 70s along the Bays,
and the middle 60s along the Pacific coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025
(Sunday through Friday)

The ridge remains established through Sunday and Monday, enabling
further warming of the region with the highs reaching around 10 to
20 degrees above seasonal averages. The inland valleys reach the
upper 70s to middle 80s, while highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s
are forecast for the Bayside regions and the Pacific Coast reaches
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight, the thermal belts remain
active through Tuesday morning, resulting in mild overnight lows and
offshore winds across the higher terrain.

The focus of the seven day forecast continues to be the shift
towards a more unsettled weather pattern in the middle of next week.
The ridge over the West Coast erodes and shifts towards the east,
allowing an upper level trough to build in the northeastern Pacific
and arrive across the West Coast beginning on Wednesday. The current
model consensus depicts the best chance for precipitation and the
most intense rain coming through the region late on Wednesday and
Thursday, followed by a period of lower chances of less intense
rain, potentially showery in nature, Friday and Saturday. There are
still several sources of uncertainty in regards to the forecast,
particularly in the rainfall totals and resultant downstream impacts
to flooding and landslide risk. For the period from 4 AM Wednesday
to 4 AM on Saturday the 15th, the NBM gives the following ranges for
25th to 75th percentile rainfall totals (that is, a 50% probability
that the eventual rainfall falls within this range): 1.2"-2.2" at
Sonoma County Airport and San Francisco International Airport, 0.8"-
1.6" at San Jose Airport, and 1"-2" at the Livermore Airport and
Monterey Regional Airport. Just to add that additional bit of
spiciness to the forecast, the NBM is also painting a 10-15% chance
of thunderstorms across the Bay Area and Central Coast on Thursday,
with K Index values of 30-35 degrees Celsius suggesting that
scattered thunderstorms are possible. We will continue to monitor
the evolution of the forecast as we head into the early part of next
week, particularly in case the rainfall totals start leaning towards
more impactful scenarios.

Beyond the 7 day outlook, ensemble model means are suggesting
another trough may develop somewhere around the Day 9-10 timeframe,
and the CPC outlook leans towards precipitation totals above
seasonal averages heading into the first week of December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 334 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Patchy dense fog in the North Bay will continue to limit
visibility through mid-morning as offshore flow begins to spread
across our area, with LIFR/IFR vis/cigs at KSTS and KAPC.

Vicinity of SFO...Offshore flow will result in VFR conditions
through the forecast period with a slight chance of MVFR status in
vicinity of the terminals around sunrise today.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Relatively light but steady offshore flow
will result in VFR conditions through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Moderate seas today will gradually become more favorable  through
the weekend and continue for the first half of the  upcoming of
week. The next storm will bring a fresh southerly  breeze
Wednesday and rough seas to the coastal waters by  Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1048 AM PST Thu Nov 7 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will persist through Saturday for all
coastal beaches. Expect an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents as well as breaking waves up to 25 feet. Remain out
of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, stay off of
jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure, and never turn
your back on the ocean! The increased risk for sneaker waves and
rip currents will linger Friday through early Saturday morning
with westerly swell quickly rebuilding.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006-
     506-508-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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