948
FXUS66 KMTR 240000
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
400 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1144 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

Scattered showers will continue through Sunday before a cold
front brings heavier precipitation to the Central Coast Monday
through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1144 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

The cold front has moved into southern California, leaving behind
a much drier, colder airmass. The precipitable water has dropped
from 1.08" to 0.64" and the 850 mb temp has dropped from 7.35C to
4.35C from 12Z yesterday to 12Z today. The short term convection
forecast is a bit of a mixed bag. As the sun peaks through and
allows the surface to warm, instability will rise. On the other
had, overall forcing is waning as a short wave trough moves toward
the Sierra. With mid-level lapse rates below 5 C/km and a
freezing level around 7,600 ft, any convection that forms will be
weak and shallow. Thunderstorms are very unlikely this afternoon.
Minor flooding impacts are still possible, but will require steady
training showers, as we saw over the East Bay in the late
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1144 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

A weaker trough will quickly move through Sunday, keeping light
rain chances in the forecast and bringing a brief pulse of
stronger southerly winds. Beyond Sunday, there is a lot of
uncertainty regarding the precipitation this week. A weak low
pressure system is likely to form just offshore somewhere between
Monterey Bay and San Francisco Bay. This low will generate a cold
front and SE winds will draw in moisture and moderate rain to the
warm sector. Where exactly this boundary sets up will have a
great influence on where the heaviest rain ends up. Our current
forecast keeps the heaviest rain over the Central Coast, but
that`s far from a guarantee. The ECMWF ensemble members show
anywhere from 0.25" to 2.0" at SFO, for example. Coastal mountains
may see up to 3 or 4 inches, but it`s unclear if that will be the
Santa Cruz mountains or the Santa Lucias. Regardless of where
exactly this system sets up, it will move south and allow
northerly flow to return by late Tuesday or Wednesday. The dry
weather should hold through Thanksgiving as a ridge begins to
build over the Eastern Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

The heavier showers have subsided allowing for predominately VFR
conditions. Some areas are still seeing some MVFR as some light
occasional showers move over the terminal but most lower stratus
is scattered. VFR expected to prevail through the remainder of
the TAF period for most terminals but KSTS may see LIFR conditions
around 12Z with VFR returning near 18Z, but confidence is low as
models show VFR through the TAF period as well. Winds will be
relatively moderate with moments of westerly winds going into the
evening, then south/southwest winds overnight into the morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with a few low stratus over the airport. Winds
have diminish to moderate to slightly breezy with a westerly
direction. Winds diminish overnight but southerly winds will rebuild
by late Sunday morning, accompanied by some light showers. Timing of
showers is a bit uncertain but expect late morning early afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds
will turn southerly by early Sunday morning light vicinity showers
start to move closer to the terminal.


&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 400 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

Winds and wave heights continue to decrease with occasional
scattered showers moving through the waters. Seas and winds
rebuild late tonight into early next week as another storm
approaches the region. Winds will initially be strongest north of
Point Reyes.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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