988
FXUS66 KMTR 070402
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
902 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - Cooler temperatures continue into the beginning of early next
   week

 - Chance for drizzle/light rain late Monday into early Tuesday

 - Warmer and drier conditions return mid to late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Patches of stratus are developing within southwestern San Mateo
County south of Half Moon Bay and the immediate area around
Fremont Peak east of Salinas, but otherwise the region remains
generally clear. The forecast remains on track.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
(This evening through Sunday)

A deep upper level low will move into the PNW today. This will bring
a cooler airmass and below normal surface temperatures to our
region. Temperatures are running between 3 to 7 degrees below normal
across the lower elevations and around 10 to 15 degrees below across
the higher elevations. Coastal temperatures stay in the 50s to 60s
while interior areas stay in the 70s to mid 80s. Seasonally cool
temperatures continue into Sunday with high temperatures remaining
similar to Saturday. Coastal residents and anyone driving through
elevated terrain and mountain gaps/passes may notice gustier winds
today. As of noon, most coastal areas have seen gusts between 20 to
35 mph while the higher elevations/mountain gaps and passes have
seen gusts to around 45 mph. The SFO-WMC gradient is expected to
strengthen to +10 to +13 mb this afternoon with surface winds to
remain gusty throughout the day. For the most part wind gusts should
stay similar to what was observed this morning but cannot rule out
locally stronger gusts across areas that promote terrain wind
funneling (the Altamont Pass and San Bruno Gap). Winds ease heading
into Sunday as the SFO-WMC pressure gradient relaxes overnight.
Breezy winds return along the coast and across mountain gaps/passes
during the day on Sunday with the SFO-WMC gradient restrengthening
to around +7 to +8 mb. Winds will be weaker on Sunday than on
Saturday with gusts peaking between 20-25 mph along the coast and
locally stronger gusts across mountain gaps/passes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Upper level troughing and seasonally cool temperatures continue into
the early work week with drizzle/light rain possible late Monday
into early Tuesday. High temperatures stay in the 50s to 60s on the
coast and in the 70s across the interior on Monday before a warming
trend kicks off Tuesday. As upper level troughing persists, it will
bring a good stream of moisture to the West Coast Monday night into
early Tuesday. PWATs are particularly impressive for an early summer
system with values ranging from 1" to 1.3". As the night shift
noted, June is typically the start of our dry season when we
typically see no rain. The current forecast shows up to a tenth of
an inch across the North Bay and a few hundredths of an inch along
coastal San Mateo County and the SF Bay shoreline. Looking at
ensembles, models are in agreement that any precipitation will be
light and generally less than a tenth of an inch. On the higher end
of the forecast, ensembles suggest up to three tenths of an inch in
the North Bay Mountains with around a tenth of an inch across the
Bay Area. The higher end forecast seems unlikely at this current
moment, with most models in support of the most likely forecast. Not
currently seeing much thunderstorm potential with this system for
MTR`s warning area. MUCAPE values are generally negligible with more
likely potential for thunderstorms to the north and south of our
service area. The most likely scenario is drizzle to light rain
across the North Bay with drizzle extending into the Bay Area/along
the coast. Totals will be light but, given that we are now in the
dry season, any rain at all is beneficial.

Tuesday acts as a transition day with temperatures warming into the
mid 70s to low 80s across the interior before a more substantial
warming trend kicks off mid to late week. Temperatures will be
seasonally warm (60s to mid 70s) along the coast and above normal
(mid 80s to mid 90s) across the interior. This is still a ways out
but ensemble cluster guidance does support ridging building in mid
to late week as upper level troughing moves eastward. There is some
potential for gusty northerly winds across the North Bay Interior
Mountains Wednesday into Thursday as upper level troughing digs into
the Intermountain West. Cluster guidance is in good agreement that
ridging will be centered over the Eastern Pacific/extend into the
West Coast but it disagrees as to how much the trough will dig/how
deep it will be over the Rockies. Any fire weather concerns from
this may be semi abated (depending how much precipitation falls) by
drizzle/light rain on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Gusty west winds continue this evening with gusts in excess of 35
kt for SFO til at least 06z. Lighter west winds at the other
terminals with only a thin band of high clouds passing overhead.
Local low cig formation after 04z for KMRY and KHAF. Continued
persistent west wind flow on Sunday but with VFR skies forecast
most of the day for the terminals except KMRY with early morning
cigs.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty west winds with gusts to around 35 kt
through 06z under clear skies. Winds ease overnight then increase
again Sunday afternoon but lower values than the last few days
with gusts less than 30 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach...Mostly clear skies with westerly winds less
than 20kt

Monterey Bay Terminals...Passing high clouds. Breezy NW winds for
KMRY and KSNS. Local cigs to develop after 04z with early clearing
by 16z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 858 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Gale force gusts will prevail across the outer and inner waters
through early Sunday morning. As a result, very rough seas across
the outer waters and rough seas over the inner waters with
hazardous conditions for small craft through the remainder of the
weekend. However, conditions do begin to improve Sunday with
moderate seas and fresh northwesterly breezes for the beginning of
next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW

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