415
FXUS66 KMTR 032342
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
442 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Warming and drying trend continues with temperatures above seasonal
averages by Friday. A weak cold front interrupts the trend Sunday
and Monday with light rain in the North Bay, before temperatures
rise much above seasonal averages by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Skies are generally clear with some cumulus clouds developing over
the ridgelines, with lingering cold air aloft supporting the
potential for some isolated showers this afternoon and evening,
although accumulations are not expected to rise above a few
hundredths of an inch. Upper level ridging over the eastern pacific
and western Canada contributes to a warming and drying trend, with
high temperatures today rising to the lower to middle 60s inland,
the lower to middle 60s on the Bayshore, the middle 50s to the lower
60s along the coasts, and the upper 40s to the middle 50s across the
higher elevations. A light onshore breeze will develop later this
afternoon, with light winds and generally clear skies overnight
contributing to chilly temperatures on Friday morning, although with
Friday morning`s lows in the upper 30s to the upper 40s across the
lower elevations, the temperatures will not be cold enough to
warrant a Frost Advisory.

Temperatures continue to inch upwards on Friday, as the upper level
ridge expands onshore and pushes an upper level trough into Arizona
and northwestern Mexico. High temperatures reach the lower to middle
70s in the inland valleys, the middle to upper 60s along the
Bayshore, and the upper 50s to lower 60s on the Pacific coast, warm
enough to reach Minor HeatRisk along the Bayshore and in the
northern Salinas Valley, meaning that there is a low risk for heat
related illnesses among people extremely sensitive to heat,
especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The warming and drying trend continues through the weekend with the
upper level ridge building across the West Coast. This weekend,
highs should reach the middle 70s to near 80 across the inland
valleys, the upper 60s to the lower 70s in the Bayshore, and the
lower to middle 60s along the Pacific Coast. For context, this is
around 5 to 10 degrees above the seasonal average, and Minor
HeatRisk continues across the inland valleys and close to the
bays.

On Sunday and Monday, a cold front will skirt the Bay Area, bringing
an interruption to the warming trend and a chance for light rain,
especially north of the Golden Gate, where rain totals of a quarter
to a third of an inch are expected in the Sonoma coastal ranges,
with up to a tenth of an inch across the rest of the North Bay. Rain
chances decrease sharply south of the Golden Gate and once you`re in
the Central Coast, rain chances are essentially nil. The current
forecast also calls for temperatures to drop back to around or
slightly below the seasonal average across the region.

The warming trend resumes after the cold front moves out and a ridge
builds over the western United States, with high temperatures in the
warmest inland regions continuing to climb into the lower to middle
80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Patchy cumulus clouds continue across the region with stratus
expected to filter in along the coastline overnight (most likely to
impact MRY, SNS, and HAF). Conditions will be slightly more moist
than last night which may result in minimal visibility deductions
across the North Bay. Moderate onshore winds will ease overnight
before returning again during the day tomorrow.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through TAF period. Low chance for MVFR CIGs
overnight with guidance keeping CIGs closer to coastline/away from
SFO. Moderate west winds will ease overnight before redeveloping
tomorrow during the day.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy cumulus clouds are resulting in
temporary broken conditions at MRY this afternoon through 02Z.
Otherwise, VFR prevails through the early morning hours when stratus
will start to move into the Monterey Bay Region. Higher confidence
in MVFR CIGs at MRY and slightly lower confidence for MVFR CIGs at
SNS. Moderate west to northwest winds will ease overnight before
moderate northwest winds redevelop during the day tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 442 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will maintain moderate
northerly winds over the coastal waters through the end of this
week. Winds will be locally stronger over the outer waters and
north of Point Reyes. These stronger winds will result in steeper
wind waves and hazardous conditions. Winds and seas will diminish
by Friday. A longer period swell will arrive late this weekend
with increased shoaling near the coast, bays, and harbor
entrances.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 414 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

As sensible weather conditions improve with warmer weather over
the weekend and early next week beachgoer traffic may increase. As
such, beachgoers should be mindful as a longer period swell
arrives Sunday. This longer period will result in hazardous beach
conditions with increased sneaker wave risk, rip current risk,
and larger shore break. A Beach Hazard statement will likely be
need as Sunday nears. Beachgoers should stay off of jetties and
rocks, keep pets on a leash, wear a life jacket, and never turn
your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Behringer

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