609
FXUS66 KMTR 021106
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
406 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 308 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

 - Deja Vu today, slightly below normal temps, generally quiet

 - Gusty NW winds Sunday-Monday. Gusts to 40 mph each afternoon
   along isolated coastal locations, as well as favored mountain
   gaps, passes, and valleys.

 - Quiet conditions are restored Tuesday with a subtle warming
   trend into the latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 308 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025
(Today and tonight)

Another morning with a well-formed marine layer, though a bit
shallower thanks to weak high pressure aloft. Really not much
change to talk about on this fine Saturday, so we`ll save the
talking for the long term discussion, in which we discuss the
upcoming wind event to kick off the week (if the week starts
Sunday for you).

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 308 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025
(Sunday through Friday)

The most notable thing to talk about weather-wise in a while (sans
tsunamis...not really "weather" anyway) is the wind event that is
anticipated beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday
evening. Guidance has been consistent and appears to have a pretty
good hold on things now. A weak, open trough is progged to clip us
to the north which brings a weak jet overhead by midday Sunday.
This pattern supports persistent high surface pressure over the
waters and falling pressure across the Great Basin. Not super
important for impacts, but an interesting tidbit nonetheless; the
position of the jet is conducive gusty winds across our region,
but not exactly in the same way as a typical winter storm that
features a strong jet streak. In this case, the location of the
upper level jet promote low pressure downstream of the jet max.
The main driver of our winds will be this surface pressure
gradient. A byproduct of the jet energy, and not the jet energy
itself. This is in contrast to a strong winter storm where there
is a strong jet aloft and little-to-no stable marine layer, so the
jet energy is able to mix down towards the surface more readily.
Okay what I`m trying to say is that this wind event Sunday and
Monday will most likely be considered "just a normal breezy day"
by many folks. However, for mariners or those traveling, working,
or recreating along the coast or favored passes and valleys
(i.e., San Bruno Gap, Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley), it will be
notably more windy. These areas are likely to see gusts to 35-40
mph during the afternoons Sunday and Monday. Beyond the windy
period, calm conditions return with a slight warming trend that
kicks off into the second half of the week. Forecast target for
temps by the end of next week looks to be about 3-5 degrees above
normal across inland areas, and near normal for coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 402 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals with a marine
layer of about 1,400 feet. With the exception of HAF, high
confidence in widespread VFR by the afternoon with low stratus
sticking close to the coast. Very little change to the pattern
through the TAF period will yield similar conditions tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with westerly flow. High confidence
(80%) on VFR through the afternoon. Westerly winds will prevail
through the TAF period. High confidence (70%) in a sub-VFR ceiling
returning to the terminal tonight, likely similar to what is
underway right now on the cusp of IFR/MVFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low probability (20%) that low stratus clouds
will linger between OAK and SFO through the afternoon before
filling back into the San Mateo Bridge Approach.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at both
terminals. High confidence (70%) on VFR through the afternoon with
low stratus sticking close to the coast. Westerly winds will prevail
through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 952 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Moderate to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail with
widespread near-gale to gale force gusts on Sunday and Monday.
Seas will remain moderate to rough through Tuesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for SF
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry
     Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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