961
FXUS66 KMTR 250615
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1015 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 848 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

A few scattered light showers the rest of tonight across the North
Bay and portions of the Bay Area, will turn into more widespread
showers across the Central Coast beginning tomorrow morning
through early Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

Scattered light showers tonight are ongoing across the North Bay
and portions of the Bay Area, bringing light rain totals <.10",
and is not expected to create new flooding concerns. A weak
atmospheric river steering moisture across the Central Coast will
begin in earnest tomorrow morning and continue through late Tuesday,
with portions of the Santa Lucias getting up to 5" of rainfall
over the next couple of days, the bulk of it occuring tomorrow
night into early Tuesday morning. Lower lying areas and valleys
farther inland across Monterey County and San Benito County can
expect between 0.50-1.50" of rainfall over that same time period.
Expect drier conditions for later Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through evening)
Issued at 1125 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

The radar has found some decent cells over the marine zones, but
there haven`t been any lightning strikes yet. A well defined low
pressure system off the coast of Eureka is spinning around the
parent low located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This
smaller feature is supporting a short wave trough that will move
through the Bay Area and could trigger moderate strength showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms in the North Bay this evening.
CAMs bring the CAPE up to 150-200 J/kg this evening and with some
deep shear (southerlies at the surface, westerlies aloft), we`ll
be keeping a close eye on radar to make sure nothing starts
spinning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1125 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

The divergent quadrant of a jet max will move over the Monterey
Bay overnight, allowing a new cyclone to quickly deepen. This
system will pump moist SE flow to the Central Coast, bringing a
couple inches to the coastal mountains. The latest trend has
pushed the moisture plume south, and the Santa Cruz mountains are
now only expecting about an inch or so. While the focus is on the
Central Coast, the Bay Area should still pick up 1/4 to 1/2 inch
or so from Mon-Tue. This system will also generate moderate
southerly winds gusting to 20-30 mph across the region,
specifically Monday afternoon-evening. By Tuesday the low pressure
system will follow the jet stream and move inland, leaving behind
a stationary boundary across the Monterey Bay area. This boundary
will continue to generate some precipitation, but the winds will
quickly die as the low evacuates the area. A drying trend kicks
off Wednesday, and Thanksgiving looks good for now. A few showers
are possible as a short wave passes Friday, but overall we don`t
see another big storm on the horizon with a large amplitude ridge
expected to develop by the first week in December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR continues through the region but ceilings are expected to lower
over some of the terminals as occasional showers move through the
terminals. Expect showers starting tonight over the North Bay and
SF/East Bay terminals. MVFR ceilings are expected for KSTS overnight
and conditions will remain MVFR/IFR (and potentially LIFR near 11-
15Z) through the TAF period. Models show agreement of MVFR ceilings
by 17Z for Monterey Bay, and after 19-21Z for the remaining
terminals. Winds are currently light but will rebuild by Monday
morning and will turn to a southerly direction.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR continues and is expected through most of the
TAF period. MVFR ceilings are expected to build after 21Z but timing
is a bit uncertain as some models suggest as early as 16Z. Light
showers are expected overnight but will be sporadic. Winds will
remain southerly through the TAF period with winds rebuilding Monday
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through most of the TAF period, but
MVFR ceilings are expected after 17-18Z, with a chance for earlier
arrival of low CIGs. Rain chances increase late tonight into early
Monday morning. By the evening, moderate chance that MVFR ceilings
will lower to IFR, but if ceilings do not lower to IFR, expect MVFR
to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 848 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

Isolated cells continue to move over the waters bringing some
possible showers tonight into Monday. Breezy to gusty winds are
building into the region. Southerly winds will be strongest north
of Point Reyes before spreading across all coastal waters late
Sunday night and Monday before easing. The increasing winds will
result in hazardous conditions for small crafts with steep wind
waves.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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