553
FXUS66 KMTR 122325
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
325 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Moderate to heavy rain and a slight chance for thunderstorms late
   tonight through Thursday

 - Strong southerly wind gusts up to 50-60 mph may cause property
   damage, downed tree limbs, and difficult travel conditions

 - Cool and unsettled weather Friday and through the weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

We have extended the Wind Advisory through 4 PM Thursday afternoon
for areas south of the Golden Gate as a result of the slower
forecast arrival time of the main frontal boundary. The Wind
Advisory and High Wind Warning for the North Bay, San Francisco,
and San Francisco Peninsula remain the same and will end at 10 AM
Thursday.

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

Light, pre-frontal rain is falling in the higher terrain of the
North Bay and the Santa Cruz Mountains due to orographic lift as
southerly winds increase ahead of the moderate atmospheric river.
This rain will begin to fall over the Santa Lucia Range by this
afternoon as the deeper moisture plume shifts southward. Rain will
persist in these areas through tonight ahead of the main frontal
band forecast to move into the North Bay around 4 AM Thursday
morning. Rain will move through the heart of the Bay Area from 4 AM
through 10 AM Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms,
greatly impacting the morning commute. For those commuting in the
morning, be prepared for rain and consider allowing extra time for
your commute. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will
continue to progress to the south and inland with precipitation
increasing in the Santa Cruz Mountains and areas of the South Bay by
7 AM through 1 PM Thursday. For the Central Coast, the main rain
band is currently forecast to move through the region during the
early to mid afternoon. Rainfall totals through Thursday afternoon
are as such; 2"-4" with isolated up to 5" in the coastal ranges of
the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast, 1"-2.5" in the North
Bay Valleys, 1"-1.5" around the San Francisco Bay Shoreline
(including the City), and 0.5"-1.25" elsewhere across the region.
There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain
shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall). There also
remains a slight chance for thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday
morning along and in wake of the frontal boundary.

South to southeast winds will begin to increase late this evening
and into early Thursday morning, strongest just ahead of the main
frontal boundary. From the previous forecaster: "The strongest winds
will be along our coastline, especially from the North Bay Coast,
including the Marin Hills, down the San Francisco Peninsula. Here we
can expected to see wind gusts reaching 55 to 60 miles per hour,
with gusts up to 70 mph possible at favored coastal and higher
terrain locations. A High Wind Warning will go into effect from 10
PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning. Elsewhere a Wind Advisory
remains in effect from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph." The Wind Advisory/High Wind
Warning very well may need to be extended out in time as we have
seen a later arrival of the boundary in most recent model runs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Post-frontal rain showers will linger through Thursday night and
into Saturday, especially across the Central Coast. This is as a
mid/upper level trough meanders over southern California through
Saturday, and potentially into the rest of the weekend. There after,
the ensemble guidance indicates either weak troughing or zonal flow
which would lead to continued unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures region wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Generally VFR conditions with mid- to high-level clouds, possibly
hihg-end MVFR in some spots, continue through the day with southerly
winds expected to steadily increase through the evening hours.
Isolated showers are currently observed with the coverage increasing
throughout the evening hours followed by the main frontal rain band
combined with the strongest southerly winds and generally MVFR-IFR
conditions progressing from the North Bay after midnight through the
rest of the region through Thursday morning. An embedded
thunderstorm can not be ruled out, but confidence in timing and
location of convection remains low. There are some directional LLWS
concerns as the front passes through, and although the magnitudes
remain too low to include in the TAFs, bumpy takeoffs and landings
are still anticipated. After the front passes, southerly winds relax
and lingering showers persist through the end of the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with mid-level clouds and isolated showers
persist through the rest of the day. Southeasterly flow will
increase through the evening hours, with gusts of at least 30-35 kt
expected overnight through Thursday morning. The main rain band
passes through Thursday morning and brings generally MVFR
conditions. After the front passes, expect improving conditions,
relaxing winds, and lingering showers through the end of the TAF
period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions with mid-level clouds
continue through the day. Southeast flow will increase through the
evening hours and peak on Thursday morning and afternoon, as the
main frontal rain band passes through the region. Generally MVFR
conditions are expected as the main front moves through. The main
band should be beginning to exit near or shortly after the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 324 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Widespread hazardous marine conditions are developing across the
waters and continue to deteriorate through Thursday morning. Rain
showers this afternoon will increase in coverage and intensity
tonight into Thursday morning with embedded thunderstorms
possible. Widespread gale force gusts are expected tonight through
Thursday morning with storm force gusts expected for the northern
waters. Winds will quickly diminish Thursday night. Moderate seas
today will build to become rough for the inner waters and very
rough for the outer waters Thursday through Friday. Seas abate to
become moderate by Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Wave bulletins recently are showing potential for hazardous surf
conditions developing late to very late Thursday night and Friday.
However, currently it`s a low confidence forecast as to whether
we`ll reach beach hazard criteria or possibly high surf advisory
criteria. Complicating the forecast is in situ rapidly deepening
low pressure development 400 miles northwest of San Francisco that
has itself rapidly evolved just since the weekend, and part of
potentially hazardous surf may be related to the local wind field
in the vicinity of the storm developing in the nearest term. Wave
model forecasts also currently show much of the wave energy over
the offshore waters passing by to our west late this week which
may help mitigate coastal hazards. Please stay tuned to further
updates.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday
     for CAZ006-502-505-509.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ503-504-506.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday for
     CAZ508-510-512>518-528>530.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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