358
FXUS66 KMTR 241841
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1141 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Mostly quiet pattern with subtle changes ongoing through the
weekend. Warmup on the way through next week with above average
temperatures likely by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Upper level trough exiting the region today as high pressure builds
behind. Evidence of large scale subsidence already in place as the
depth of the marine layer inversion has decreased compared to 24
hours ago. This trend will likely continue, and stratus coverage
will probably end up lasting through the day today along favored NW
flow coastal areas (e.g., Point Reyes, SF Peninsula to Davenport,
Monterey Peninsula region) thanks to good moisture advection and an
onshore gradient. Afternoon winds very similar to yesterday with
gusts to 25 mph possible along the coast and NW-SE valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Very subtle pattern continues through to next week where we really
don`t see too much notable change outside of cloud cover and slight
variations in daily high temps. A deep upper low centered over the
Gulf of Alaska is progged to remain in place through the extended
and provide a few short wavelength troughs that sort of dampen our
upper level ridge a bit. This acts to moderate temperatures through
much of next week with a stout northwest flow regime persisting. By
the end of next week, ridging over the western US builds and, in
laymen`s terms, essentially starts to out match the ability of the
Gulf of Alaska low to dampen the pattern and moderate our temps. The
result will be increasing daytime highs into next weekend, resulting
in moderate HeatRisk beginning to encroach on interior areas. This
change is advertised with high confidence based on ensemble guidance
and cluster analysis. A rather interesting pattern is also being
advertised in the model guidance, though more uncertain. A cut-off
low meandering around SoCal and making its way up the coast by the
beginning of June. If this were to actually play out we could be
looking at a period of offshore winds on the north side of the low.
However, guidance has continued to indicate a decent moisture
profile through the column with this system, so the current forecast
actually doesn`t have too much in the way of critically dry
conditions. The situation regarding the cut off low is advertised
with low confidence and should be watched closely over the coming
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

CIGs are eroding and VFR is returning for most areas aside from the
immediate coast and around the Monterey Bay which will keep CIGs
through the TAF period. Moderate to breezy winds build across much
of the region through the afternoon but look to reduce into the
evening. As winds reduce, low clouds move farther inland and fill
over SF Bay  as well as APC and LVK. Moments of mist and drizzle look
to affect STS and the Monterey Bay into Sunday morning. Cloud cover
erodes into late Sunday morning for most areas, but looks persists
beyond the TAF period for HAF and the Monterey Bay terminals.


Vicinity of SFO...Expect VFR return into the early afternoon and
last into the early night. Breezy to gusty west winds are building
and look to last into the evening before gusts cut off. MVFR CIGs
arrive into the night and remain through the late morning. Breezy
west winds build again into Sunday afternoon as CIGs erode.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs remain around the Monterey Bay through
the TAF period. Expect moderate to breezy winds through the
afternoon and into the evening. CIGs fall to IFR levels as winds
decrease in the evening. Moments of even lower CIGs and mist/drizzle
look to effect the terminals into the mid morning on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue through Memorial
Day weekend. Expect hazardous marine conditions across the waters
through the weekend and into the early work week as rough and
hazardous seas linger. Winds and seas ease into the late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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