076
FXUS66 KMTR 051252 AAB
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
452 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

-Wind, rain, and thunderstorms today for the Bay Area and Central Coast.

-Peak wind gusts will range from 25 mph in the valleys with isolated
 65 to 70 mph along the North Bay Pacific Coast and higher
 terrain.

-Hazardous boating, beach, and coastal conditions due to high
 winds, surf and tidally influenced flooding through the work
 week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 153 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025
(Today and tonight)

Our well advertised storm system continues to impinge on the area
as of this writing with southerly winds starting to crank across
the coastal waters with areas near Point Arena consistently
gusting in the 55-60 mph range. In addition, areas near the Marin
Headlands have observed sustained winds of 40-45 mph with gusts
as great as 66 mph. Wind headlines remain unchanged at this time
and we`re still anticipating wind gusts to average between 25 mph
across the Central Coast and sheltered valley regions, gusts
around 45 to 55 mph across portions of the Bay Area. The strongest
winds are still anticipated across the North Bay, largely along
the Pacific Coast and across the Marin Headlands. The High Wind
Warning will continue for the Pacific Coast north of the Golden
Gate, but as the low level speed maxima diminishes, we`ll likely
be able to convert High Wind Warnings to a Wind Advisory as the
threat for +58mph wind gusts will diminish through the early
afternoon. Still, anticipate a potential that any loose outdoor
decor/articles to be displaced and driving difficulties on east-
west oriented roadways for lightweight and high profile vehicles.
Sporadic power outages are also still possible with a threat for
tree damage.

The rainfall forecast is where things are a little trickier due
to the combination of some slight timing nuisances, but also the
complex topography. With largely south to southwesterly flow
associated along and just behind the front, there`s a 4 to 5 hour
window where upslope flow along the higher terrain will be
optimized. PWATs climb to or above 1" and this in tandem with the
aforementioned ascent should equate to moderate to at times heavy
rainfall. Taking a look at some of the probabilistic guidance,
there`s around a 55-75% chance that rainfall amounts over the next
24 hours will exceed 1"-3" across the Sonoma Coastal Range, the
northern Mayacamas, and portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains.
Confidence is highest that QPF will be greatest across the Sonoma
Coastal Ranges and the latest forecast adjust totals upward across
these orographically favored regions. Elsewhere up to 1" of
rainfall can be expected.

Even with the increase in anticipated rainfall amounts, the
potential for widespread main stem river flooding remains nearly
non-existent even using worst case scenario forecasts from the
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (though sometimes these can be
a little underdispersive). What`s more probable are impacts to
the morning commute (Bay Area) and evening commutes (Central
Coast). Ponding on roadways could result in slick conditions and
brief bouts of heavy rain will reduce visibility and increase the
potential for hydroplaning. Be sure to check conditions and allow
yourself extra drive time on your commute.

Finally, there there will be around a 20% risk for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, largely across the North Bay. The
background kinematic wind field does support some organized
convective modes capable of enhanced outflow winds. At this time,
it appears that this threat may be greatest with the initial NCFR.
If additional convection can re-fire later this afternoon, it may
take on more of a discrete cellular mode and the environment
would be favorable for low-topped rotating convective cells. This
threat is highly conditional and will need to be monitored.

While the main system will move through tonight, the flow remain
largely zonal. Low level flow across the North Bay actually backs
some such that modest onshore/upslope flow resumes, giving this
region another shot at measurable precipitation into the overnight
hours. Rain totals associated with this round are forecast to be
substantially lower as PWAT values slip down below 0.75".
Additional rainfall totals should average between a few hundredths
of an inch to maybe up to one quarter of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 153 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)

The only real sensible weather impact Thursday morning would be
the potential for radiation fog. At this time, I`ll advertise
patchy to areas of fog, however, lingering cloud cover may be the
fly-in-the-ointment and we`ll re-examine things through the day
and this evening.

Brief ridging is forecast to establish itself through the day
Friday and into the weekend. This translates to little to no PoP
across the Bay Area and Central Coast during this time period.

Temperatures will gradually rebound and the blend seems
reasonable, though some guidance does suggest a modest push of
offshore flow. At present time, this guidance is in the minority,
however, it`s possible that future forecast updates will feature
higher MaxTs than what`s currently advertised (highs between 60
and 80 degrees areawide). The good news is that even if it ends up
being warmer than currently forecast, HeatRisk is anticipated to
remain largely in the "minor" category.

Getting into the days 5 and 6 (Monday and Tuesday) timeframe,
model consistency diverges significantly. About two-thirds of the
GFS, GEFS, and EPS ensembles maintain our ridging pattern through
while the remaining third advertises a deep trough across the
west coast. The former solutions would keep conditions rain-free
through the end of the forecast period, while a trough across the
west coast would warrant rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. At
present time, the forecast will remain dry through Tuesday, with
low (20%-30%) PoPs returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

Windy, rainy, and potentially stormy conditions are forecast
today. Wind gusts between 25 and 40+ knots, IFR visibility, and
MVFR cigs should be anticipated with precipitation. MVFR is
anticipated during the overnight hours into Thursday morning.
Confidence in the timing of rain and elevated winds is medium to
high, with low to medium confidence in overnight cigs.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR cigs currently with deteriorating
conditions through the morning push resulting in significant
impacts. IFR visibility and +40 knot gusts will accompany SHRA and
the most likely window for this to transpire appears to be
between 14Z-17Z. Refinements may be necessary depending on radar
trends. Some guidance advertises a brief window for VFR this
afternoon, but confidence in preciseness is low and for
simplicity, will advertise MVFR. Trends will be monitored,
however. S`ly winds are anticipated to begin to subside down to or
below 10-12 knots around 00Z. MVFR cigs appear probable to
continue through the extended portion of the TAF, though there may
be instances of VFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...IMC/non-VAPS probable through today, though
there may be a brief window for VAPS this afternoon. Cigs
anticipated through the afternoon may not support VAPS.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR currently, with increasing
S`ly flow today. The southerly winds should pull MVFR cigs into
both TAFs by mid-morning. Shortly thereafter, a loose band of SHRA
should impact both terminals, increasing wind gusts. There is the
potential that visibility could be reduced, but confidence isn`t
high enough to include in the TAF at this time. MVFR will continue
after sunset tonight and persist through the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

Widespread hazardous conditions and rough to very rough seas
continue across the coastal waters through Wednesday. Southerly
storm force gusts are in progress and forecast to continue from
Point  Arena to Pigeon Point. Farther south, gale to severe gale
wind  gusts are anticipated, especially in the vicnity of any
southerly  coastal jets. Rain showers are forecast across all
waters today  and tonight, with a threat or thunderstorms near and
north of  Pigeon Point. The main hazards will be locally higher,
confused  seas. A waterspout or two cannot be discounted. Light to
moderate  breezes return late tonight into Thursday, though seas
will remain elevated between 10 and 15 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 248 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will persist through the end of the
work week as westerly swell rolls in with breaking wave heights in
up to 22 feet, particularly for west facing beaches. This will
equate to an increased risk for rip currents and sneaker waves. In
addition, higher surf may arrive on Thursday, potentially
resulting not only an increase in the rip current and sneaker wave
threat, but an increase in potential impacts to coastal
infrastructure and beach erosion. Remember, sneaker waves can
unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal,
including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more
frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and
piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Stay off the
rocks, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming
conditions, and never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-
     508-529-530.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006-503-504-
     506-508>510-512-515.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Thursday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ502-505.

PZ...Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Storm Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...Bain
MARINE...Bain

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