114
FXUS66 KMTR 242342
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
342 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1125 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

A few showers are expected in the North Bay this evening with more
widespread rain focused on the Central Coast Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through evening)
Issued at 1125 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

The radar has found some decent cells over the marine zones, but
there haven`t been any lightning strikes yet. A well defined low
pressure system off the coast of Eureka is spinning around the
parent low located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This
smaller feature is supporting a short wave trough that will move
through the Bay Area and could trigger moderate strength showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms in the North Bay this evening.
CAMs bring the CAPE up to 150-200 J/kg this evening and with some
deep shear (southerlies at the surface, westerlies aloft), we`ll
be keeping a close eye on radar to make sure nothing starts
spinning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1125 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

The divergent quadrant of a jet max will move over the Monterey
Bay overnight, allowing a new cyclone to quickly deepen. This
system will pump moist SE flow to the Central Coast, bringing a
couple inches to the coastal mountains. The latest trend has
pushed the moisture plume south, and the Santa Cruz mountains are
now only expecting about an inch or so. While the focus is on the
Central Coast, the Bay Area should still pick up 1/4 to 1/2 inch
or so from Mon-Tue. This system will also generate moderate
southerly winds gusting to 20-30 mph across the region,
specifically Monday afternoon-evening. By Tuesday the low pressure
system will follow the jet stream and move inland, leaving behind
a stationary boundary across the Monterey Bay area. This boundary
will continue to generate some precipitation, but the winds will
quickly die as the low evacuates the area. A drying trend kicks
off Wednesday, and Thanksgiving looks good for now. A few showers
are possible as a short wave passes Friday, but overall we don`t
see another big storm on the horizon with a large amplitude ridge
expected to develop by the first week in December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 341 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR through the region but conditions are expected to lower
to MVFR  over some of the terminals as showers move over the
terminals. Expect showers starting tonight over the North Bay and
SF/East Bay terminals. Models show signals for MVFR ceilings for
most terminals by Monday afternoon. There is some uncertainty on
timing of MVFR CIGs but expect near 16z-19Z for Monterey Bay and
after 19-21Z for terminals north of Monterey Bay. Higher chance the
KSTS may remain MVFR after 03-04Z through the remainder of the TAF
period. Models also show a hint of LIFR conditions overnight at
KSTS, but had low confidence at the moment to include in current TAF
package. Winds will turn S/SW tonight and will rebuild by Monday
morning to breezy.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR continues and is expected through most of the
TAF period but MVFR ceilings are expected towards Monday afternoon.
Light showers are expected over the terminal tonight. Shower
diminish overnight but will rebuild by Monday morning. Winds will
remain southerly through the TAF period with winds rebuilding Monday
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR most of the TAF period, but MVFR
ceilings are expected after 17-18Z. Rain chances increase late
tonight into early Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 341 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

Breezy to gusty winds are building into the region. Southerly
winds will be strongest north of Point Reyes before spreading
across all coastal waters late Sunday night and Monday before
easing. The increasing winds will result in hazardous conditions
for small crafts with steep wind waves.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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