511
FXUS66 KMTR 242003
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
103 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Mostly quiet weather pattern across the region with minor day-to-day
changes through Monday. A warming trend will kick off Tuesday and
warm to above seasonal averages by the Friday of the upcoming
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

A weak upper level trough continues to exit the region today. This
will allow temperatures this afternoon to warm into the upper 50s to
lower 60s near the coast where low clouds appear to have the
greatest probability of hanging around much of the day. Meanwhile,
the interior will warm into the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s. Breezy
west to northwest winds are expected this afternoon with gusts up to
35 mph along the coast and in the NW-SE oriented valleys.

Widespread low clouds look to return tonight and penetrate into the
coastal adjacent valleys as a solid marine layer remains in place.
Temperatures overnight will range from the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tomorrow, expect similar afternoon winds and temperatures as we have
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

An upper level ridge will then build across the region beginning
Wednesday and last through next weekend. However, a cut-off low is
forecast to develop within the broader ridge and move towards Baja
California late in the upcoming week. The exact track/placement of
the cut-off low may impact temperatures and overall weather across
our region in the upcoming week. However, the overall trend is for
interior temperatures to warm to as much as 15 degrees above average
by Friday. Meanwhile, temperatures look to continue to be near
normal for coastal locations. Thus, the warmest interior locations
are likely to reach Moderate HeatRisk on Friday. This is advertised
with high confidence based on ensemble guidance and cluster
analysis. With some uncertainty with the position of the cut-off
low, be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast information.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

CIGs are eroding and VFR is returning for most areas aside from the
immediate coast and around the Monterey Bay which will keep CIGs
through the TAF period. Moderate to breezy winds build across much
of the region through the afternoon but look to reduce into the
evening. As winds reduce, low clouds move farther inland and fill
over SF Bay  as well as APC and LVK. Moments of mist and drizzle look
to affect STS and the Monterey Bay into Sunday morning. Cloud cover
erodes into late Sunday morning for most areas, but looks persists
beyond the TAF period for HAF and the Monterey Bay terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...Expect VFR return into the early afternoon and
last into the early night. Breezy to gusty west winds are building
and look to last into the evening before gusts cut off. MVFR CIGs
arrive into the night and remain through the late morning. Breezy
west winds build again into Sunday afternoon as CIGs erode.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs remain around the Monterey Bay through
the TAF period. Expect moderate to breezy winds through the
afternoon and into the evening. CIGs fall to IFR levels as winds
decrease in the evening. Moments of even lower CIGs and mist/drizzle
look to effect the terminals into the mid morning on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue through Memorial
Day weekend. Expect hazardous marine conditions across the waters
through the weekend and into the early work week as rough and
hazardous seas linger. Winds and seas ease into the late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for SF
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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