329
FXUS66 KMTR 051206
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
506 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

 - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages into early next
   week.

 - Gradual pattern change bringing warming trend for second half
   of next week begins Wednesday.

 - Marine layer increases and expands farther inland for end of
   the weekend, beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025
(Today and tonight)

A weak upper level disturbance has begun to split off from the
northern jet across the Pacific Northwest and will gradually develop
into a cut-off low later tonight, and settle off the Central Coast
by early Sunday morning. Dry air just above the marine layer
continues to make the coastal stratus cloud cover forecast
difficult. A sliver of low stratus can be seen at this hour (3AM
PDT) building south from the Bay Area toward the San Lucia coastal
range, bypassing the Monterey Bay at the moment. Expect stratus to
remain mostly confined to coastal locations where it does develop
with little inland intrusion. Todays temperatures will continue to
be on the cool side with bright sunshine inland and slacking wind
compared to previous couple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025
(Sunday through Friday)

A cut off upper level low will stall off the California Central
Coast over the next few days. As the weak upper system slowly
meanders offshore we should see an improved fetch of moisture above
the marine layer up to approx 500mb, resulting in an expanding
marine layer that will penetrate farther inland as we head into the
beginning of next week. Early morning drizzle and fog may also be
more widespread for the beginning of next week. By Wednesday the
stalled upper low begins to make progress inland. Considerable
uncertainty remains in the forecast for a potential warm up late
next week, however expect temperatures by the end of next week into
next weekend to at least rebound closer to normal, with eyes on some
potential moderate heat risk if the synoptic pattern supports longer
residence time of ridging aloft over our region late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Mix of VFR and MVFR-IFR conditions across the board. For sites that
have developed stratus, CIGs are generally on the MVFR-IFR border.
Confidence is slightly higher in MVFR CIGs than IFR but there may be
temporary fluctuations in CIG category through the rest of the
morning. Moderate confidence in CIGs clearing around 17Z-18Z with
HAF looking to stay overcast for the entire day. Confidence is low
to moderate on HAF not clearing with some guidance does suggest it
will clear for at least a few hours this afternoon. However, with
the marine layer expected to deepen tonight and more widespread
stratus expected this evening/tonight, opted to go for a slightly
more pessimistic TAF. Widespread stratus is expected tonight with
stratus expected to arrive late this evening into the overnight
hours. Moderate west to northwest winds are expected this
afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight into tomorrow morning.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR-IFR CIGs continue with CIGs to clear by late
this morning. Moderate westerly winds are expected this afternoon
and evening with gusts to around 25 knots. Stratus is expected to
return to return late this evening with moderate confidence in
timing. LAMP guidance indicates some potential for CIGs to return as
early as 03Z but stratus is more likely to return around 06Z-07Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs are building in along the Monterey
Peninsula with MRY reporting overcast conditions. Stratus is
expected to persist at MRY through mid to late morning, briefly
clear during the day, and return late this evening. MVFR to IFR CIGs
are expected overnight with some potential for visibilities to drop
towards the end of this TAF period. Confidence is low to moderate
that stratus will reach SNS this morning with a tempo in place
through 16Z. Stratus looks to return to SNS overnight tonight with
highest confidence in IFR CIGs. Moderate west to northwest winds are
expected this afternoon before winds ease overnight.&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwesterly breeze will
continue into the weekend. Winds will diminish late Sunday into
Monday with a moderate breeze to continue through late next week.
Occasional gale force gusts are possible along the Big Sur
coastline  Saturday afternoon. Winds increase and significant wave
heights build beginning late next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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