Extended Streamflow Prediction
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Issued by NWS
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FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPMTB
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BLUE R AT KC MO BLUERIDGE BLVD
KBRM7 35.0 39.0 48.0 | 34 30 32 | 11 10 11 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG BLUE R AT KC MO BANNISTER RD
KCCM7 34.0 40.0 42.0 | 17 11 11 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BLUE R AT KANSAS CITY 71 HWY MO
KNYM7 27.0 36.0 38.0 | 29 27 27 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BLUE R AT KC MO 63RD ST
KAYM7 26.0 33.0 37.0 | 25 20 23 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BLUE R AT KC MO COLORADO AVE
BVCM7 31.0 36.0 37.0 | 8 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BLUE R AT KC MO STADIUM DR
KSDM7 33.0 39.0 43.0 | 11 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BLUE R AT KC MO 17TH ST
KSVM7 33.0 36.0 38.0 | 15 9 10 | 7 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BLUE R AT KANSAS CITY MO 12TH ST
KCTM7 30.0 35.0 40.0 | 9 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT LAKE CITY MO
LKCM7 18.0 25.0 27.0 | 49 45 41 | 5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CROOKED R AT RICHMOND MO 4N
RICM7 20.0 21.0 29.0 | 55 66 78 | 47 61 72 | <5 <5 <5
:WAKENDA CR AT CARROLLTON MO
CAXM7 16.0 19.0 21.0 | 50 55 67 | 34 37 61 | 6 <5 17
:BLACKWATER R AT VALLEY CITY MO 1NW
VLYM7 22.0 25.0 31.0 | 75 83 93 | 68 75 84 | 21 24 29
:BLACKWATER R AT BLUE LICK MO
BLVM7 24.0 29.0 37.0 | 82 86 94 | 43 45 57 | 15 11 12
:LAMINE R AT OTTERVILLE MO 1E
OTTM7 15.0 18.0 26.0 | 44 42 62 | 37 36 50 | 6 <5 11
:MONITEAU CR AT FAYETTE MO 6ESE
FYTM7 16.0 21.0 25.0 | 62 76 81 | 5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:PETITESALINE CR AT BOONVILLE MO 4SSE
BONM7 16.0 19.5 26.0 | 54 55 63 | 48 49 51 | <5 <5 <5
:MOREAU R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO 3S
JCMM7 17.0 25.0 29.0 | 64 64 75 | 38 41 50 | 20 18 28
:HINKSON CR AT COLUMBIA MO
TGRM7 15.0 18.0 20.0 | 46 55 56 | 19 27 31 | <5 9 9
:MARIES R AT WESTPHALIA MO
WPHM7 10.0 15.0 20.0 | 36 39 44 | 12 20 23 | <5 <5 <5
:GASCONADE R AT HAZELGREEN MO 1W
HZLM7 21.0 26.0 30.0 | 6 20 27 | <5 13 18 | <5 8 9
:ROUBIDOUX CR AT WAYNESVILLE MO
RBXM7 7.0 14.0 20.0 | 33 27 49 | <5 7 9 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG PINEY R AT FT LEONARD WOOD EAST GATE MO
BIGM7 8.0 15.0 23.0 | 62 77 81 | 24 30 39 | <5 8 8
:GASCONADE R AT JEROME MO
JRMM7 15.0 25.0 30.0 | 28 37 51 | <5 9 21 | <5 7 8
:GASCONADE R AT RICH FOUNTAIN MO
RIFM7 20.0 25.0 30.0 | 19 25 40 | 5 14 26 | <5 8 10
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BLUE R
KBRM7 25.9/ 27.1/ 30.5/ 38.2/ 36.7/ 39.1/ 40.1/
:BIG BLUE R
KCCM7 5.5/ 9.7/ 15.9/ 32.8/ 29.3/ 36.5/ 37.4/
:BLUE R
KNYM7 4.5/ 9.4/ 16.4/ 32.0/ 28.7/ 34.3/ 35.2/
KAYM7 8.1/ 12.2/ 16.8/ 28.1/ 25.7/ 29.5/ 30.2/
BVCM7 8.1/ 11.6/ 16.0/ 27.1/ 24.0/ 29.7/ 31.8/
KSDM7 7.4/ 10.9/ 16.5/ 30.2/ 26.8/ 33.3/ 35.5/
KSVM7 9.8/ 14.9/ 19.7/ 31.9/ 28.8/ 34.2/ 36.8/
KCTM7 5.6/ 10.7/ 14.7/ 27.2/ 24.0/ 29.4/ 31.9/
:LITTLE BLUE R
LKCM7 5.6/ 7.1/ 11.9/ 21.4/ 21.3/ 24.0/ 24.8/
:CROOKED R
RICM7 6.1/ 6.3/ 13.7/ 24.9/ 24.5/ 26.8/ 27.3/
:WAKENDA CR
CAXM7 2.5/ 2.8/ 8.3/ 19.7/ 19.4/ 20.5/ 21.6/
:BLACKWATER R
VLYM7 8.4/ 13.9/ 22.3/ 31.2/ 30.5/ 33.5/ 36.1/
BLVM7 13.6/ 19.9/ 26.7/ 34.8/ 32.9/ 38.6/ 40.3/
:LAMINE R
OTTM7 0.4/ 0.4/ 4.1/ 21.7/ 20.0/ 25.4/ 26.9/
:MONITEAU CR
FYTM7 5.7/ 8.4/ 13.1/ 19.9/ 19.8/ 20.5/ 21.1/
:PETITESALINE CR
BONM7 4.6/ 6.0/ 9.1/ 23.3/ 23.0/ 24.8/ 25.1/
:MOREAU R
JCMM7 4.0/ 6.4/ 14.5/ 28.8/ 27.1/ 35.8/ 38.0/
:HINKSON CR
TGRM7 4.9/ 6.8/ 11.4/ 17.6/ 16.7/ 19.3/ 19.7/
:MARIES R
WPHM7 2.2/ 3.0/ 3.8/ 13.4/ 12.4/ 15.3/ 17.4/
:GASCONADE R
HZLM7 2.1/ 3.9/ 5.4/ 14.6/ 13.4/ 18.2/ 22.5/
:ROUBIDOUX CR
RBXM7 1.9/ 3.6/ 3.9/ 8.6/ 7.8/ 9.5/ 11.8/
:BIG PINEY R
BIGM7 3.1/ 3.9/ 6.7/ 16.0/ 14.4/ 17.6/ 18.8/
:GASCONADE R
JRMM7 3.1/ 6.4/ 8.0/ 18.0/ 17.0/ 19.0/ 23.4/
RIFM7 3.7/ 7.0/ 8.6/ 19.9/ 19.2/ 22.2/ 25.6/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BLUE R
KBRM7 25.3/ 25.3/ 25.3/ 25.2/ 25.2/ 25.2/ 25.2/
:BIG BLUE R
KCCM7 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/
:BLUE R
KNYM7 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/
KAYM7 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.6/
BVCM7 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.8/
KSDM7 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/
KSVM7 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.9/
KCTM7 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/
:LITTLE BLUE R
LKCM7 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.9/
:CROOKED R
RICM7 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.3/ 5.4/ 5.2/ 4.0/
:WAKENDA CR
CAXM7 2.3/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/
:BLACKWATER R
VLYM7 -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/ -1.0/
BLVM7 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.3/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.3/ 5.0/
:LAMINE R
OTTM7 -2.0/ -2.0/ -2.0/ -2.0/ -2.0/ -2.0/ -2.0/
:MONITEAU CR
FYTM7 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:PETITESALINE CR
BONM7 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.1/ 2.4/ 3.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
:MOREAU R
JCMM7 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/
:HINKSON CR
TGRM7 3.9/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
:MARIES R
WPHM7 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.3/
:GASCONADE R
HZLM7 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.1/ 1.1/
:ROUBIDOUX CR
RBXM7 1.9/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/
:BIG PINEY R
BIGM7 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 1.6/ 1.5/
:GASCONADE R
JRMM7 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.4/
RIFM7 3.1/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 1.8/
.END
$$