Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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812
FGUS63 KKRF 261835
ESPMTA
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1038 PM CST MON NOV 25 2024
********************************************************
********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS *********
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR
HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOLDIER R AT PISGAH IA
PSGI4 28.0 29.0 30.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BOYER R AT LOGAN IA
LGNI4 21.0 22.0 25.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:WEEPING WATER CR AT UNION NE 2SE
UION1 25.0 28.0 30.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA R AT ATLANTIC IA 5SW
ATCI4 19.0 23.0 24.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA R AT RED OAK IA #2
RDOI4 18.0 22.0 27.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:W NISHNABOTNA R AT HANCOCK IA
HNKI4 14.0 19.0 23.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:WEST NISHNABOTNA R AT RANDOLPH IA 1W
RDPI4 19.0 22.0 27.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:NISHNABOTNA R AT HAMBURG IA 2NE
HMBI4 25.0 27.5 33.0 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE NEMAHA R AT AUBURN NE 1NE
ABRN1 22.0 23.0 27.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:TARKIO R AT FAIRFAX MO 1W
FFXM7 17.0 18.0 25.0 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:N FK BIG NEMA R AT HUMBOLDT NE
HBLN1 28.0 29.5 31.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:TURKEY CR AT SENECA KS 8NW
SNCK1 21.0 23.5 40.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BIG NEMAHA R AT FALLS CITY NE
FLLN1 27.0 30.0 36.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NODAWAY R AT CLARINDA IA 1E
ICLI4 23.0 26.0 29.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:NODAWAY R AT BURLINGTON JUNCTION MO 1W
BRLM7 23.0 28.0 35.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:E FK 102 R AT BEDFORD IA 1SSE
BDFI4 24.0 25.0 26.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:102 R AT MARYVILLE MO 2E
MYVM7 18.0 23.0 28.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:102 R AT ROSENDALE MO
RSDM7 18.0 18.1 23.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R AT AGENCY MO 4NE
AGYM7 20.0 25.0 30.0 | 10 17 22 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE PLATTE R AT SMITHVILLE MO
SMHM7 27.0 30.5 35.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R AT SHARPS STATION MO
SSTM7 26.0 29.0 33.0 | 7 <5 10 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R AT PLATTE CITY MO
PLCM7 20.0 25.0 29.0 | 8 10 17 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOLDIER R
PSGI4 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 5.3/ 7.6/
:BOYER R
LGNI4 3.5/ 3.7/ 4.6/ 6.9/ 6.8/ 7.7/ 7.9/
:WEEPING WATER CR
UION1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 3.8/ 5.8/
:EAST NISHNABOTNA R
ATCI4 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.2/ 5.3/ 4.8/ 6.3/ 8.6/
RDOI4 5.4/ 5.6/ 6.4/ 8.8/ 7.9/ 10.0/ 11.4/
:W NISHNABOTNA R
HNKI4 1.6/ 1.6/ 2.2/ 4.1/ 3.7/ 4.5/ 5.8/
:WEST NISHNABOTNA R
RDPI4 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.6/ 9.2/ 9.0/ 11.2/ 12.2/
:NISHNABOTNA R
HMBI4 7.8/ 7.8/ 9.1/ 12.0/ 11.2/ 15.2/ 16.2/
:LITTLE NEMAHA R
ABRN1 2.5/ 3.2/ 4.9/ 7.9/ 7.8/ 10.0/ 16.5/
:TARKIO R
FFXM7 6.3/ 6.9/ 7.3/ 10.0/ 9.1/ 12.4/ 13.4/
:N FK BIG NEMA R
HBLN1 1.9/ 2.4/ 3.0/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 6.5/ 8.6/
:TURKEY CR
SNCK1 1.1/ 2.4/ 3.2/ 5.7/ 5.6/ 7.5/ 11.1/
:BIG NEMAHA R
FLLN1 4.0/ 5.1/ 5.7/ 11.1/ 10.1/ 11.9/ 13.7/
:NODAWAY R
ICLI4 10.6/ 10.6/ 10.7/ 11.4/ 11.3/ 11.9/ 12.4/
BRLM7 4.2/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 6.8/ 6.7/ 8.2/ 9.2/
:E FK 102 R
BDFI4 11.4/ 12.3/ 13.0/ 14.4/ 14.3/ 14.9/ 17.4/
:102 R
MYVM7 6.8/ 7.5/ 9.4/ 11.2/ 10.8/ 11.9/ 14.0/
RSDM7 3.2/ 4.4/ 7.7/ 11.1/ 11.0/ 13.1/ 15.6/
:PLATTE R
AGYM7 7.3/ 9.4/ 12.3/ 17.8/ 17.4/ 20.0/ 24.2/
:LITTLE PLATTE R
SMHM7 14.5/ 14.5/ 14.5/ 15.3/ 15.1/ 16.0/ 17.0/
:PLATTE R
SSTM7 5.7/ 8.7/ 11.3/ 19.3/ 18.0/ 21.2/ 28.2/
PLCM7 1.4/ 6.0/ 9.1/ 16.4/ 15.1/ 18.1/ 22.8/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOLDIER R
PSGI4 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/
:BOYER R
LGNI4 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/
:WEEPING WATER CR
UION1 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/
:EAST NISHNABOTNA R
ATCI4 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
RDOI4 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/
:W NISHNABOTNA R
HNKI4 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/
:WEST NISHNABOTNA R
RDPI4 7.2/ 6.9/ 6.7/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.3/
:NISHNABOTNA R
HMBI4 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.5/ 7.1/ 7.2/ 7.1/ 6.9/
:LITTLE NEMAHA R
ABRN1 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/
:TARKIO R
FFXM7 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.3/
:N FK BIG NEMA R
HBLN1 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/
:TURKEY CR
SNCK1 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/
:BIG NEMAHA R
FLLN1 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:NODAWAY R
ICLI4 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4/
BRLM7 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.6/
:E FK 102 R
BDFI4 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/
:102 R
MYVM7 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/
RSDM7 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:PLATTE R
AGYM7 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.6/ 5.6/
:LITTLE PLATTE R
SMHM7 12.2/ 12.2/ 12.2/ 12.2/ 12.2/ 12.2/ 12.2/
:PLATTE R
SSTM7 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.9/
PLCM7 -1.5/ -1.8/ -1.9/ -2.1/ -2.1/ -2.1/ -2.2/
.END
$$