Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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FGUS63 KMSR 131446
ESGMSR

Upper Midwest Spring Snowmelt and Flood Potential Outlook
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
0841 AM CST Thu Feb 13, 2025

This is the first of three Spring Flood Outlooks to be provided
this year, to discuss hydrologic conditions across the region,
and the associated potential for spring flooding.

To view the NCRFC 2025 Spring Hydrologic Outlook storymap, which
includes a more detailed description of the flood outlook and
images, refer to: http://www.weather.gov/NCRFC and select the
2025 Spring Hydrologic Outlook news headline near the top of the
page.

This outlook references information from many sources, including
the following core partners:

 *United States Geological Survey (USGS)
 *Regional Climate Centers (Midwest-MRCC and High Plains-HPRCC)
 *US Drought Monitor (NIDIS)
 *US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
 *NOAA, Office of Water Prediction (OWP), formerly known as
   National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)

The following 2025 Spring Outlook issuance dates have been set in
coordination with all NWS regions and NWS headquarters:

National Weather Service issues Spring Flood Outlook with
probabilistic products on:

 * Thursday, February 13, 2025
 * Thursday, February 27, 2025
 * Thursday, March 13, 2025

NOAA National Spring Flood Outlook press briefing will be on:

 * Thursday, March 20, 2025

            ********************************
             Spring 2025 NCRFC Area Summary
            ********************************

Overall, the flood risk for the NCRFC area north of Missouri and
central Illinois this Spring is below normal when compared to
what is historically expected for the outlook period. The flood
risk for southern portions of the NCRFC service area is near
normal.

Outside typical wet conditions from spring snowmelt and a brief
wet period late last Spring into early Summer, drought conditions
have plagued the NCRFC service area off and on since the Summer
of 2020. Following some record flooding that occurred across
Minnesota and Iowa last June and July, dry conditions have been
persistent across a majority of the service area since August
2024. These dry conditions set the northern NCRFC service area up
for below average soil moisture conditions going into winter
freeze-up.

The winter precipitation accumulation has been fairly typical for
the Hudson Bay drainage area. On the other hand, the Mississippi
River drainage area winter precipitation has been very
underwhelming with much of the upper Mississippi River drainage
receiving well below normal precipitation between mid November
and present day.

Due to the lack of snow to insulate the soil, coupled with
multiple surges of bitter cold arctic air events, conditions have
been favorable for developing deeper than average frost depths.
Deep frost is considered a key ingredient for significant spring
flooding because it increases the risk of excessive surface
runoff in rapid melt-off, rain-on-snow, and heavy rainfall scenarios.
Please note that this potential driver of flooding is not
explicitly captured by the hydrologic model exceedance
probabilities. With the lack of snow cover, rivers have
accumulated more ice than usual this year, which will elevate the
risk for break-up ice jams when the flows increase on the rivers.

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JDT/NCRFC