932
FNUS75 KMSO 171538
FWSMSO

Spot Forecast for Bivens Creek
National Weather Service Missoula MT
938 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1011 MDT on August 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Confidence is high for thunderstorms this
afternoon, with activity developing along the ID/MT border near
the divide by 1200 MDT, before moving eastward over/near the fire
between 1400-1600 MDT. High-res models suggest another round of
showers and thunderstorms between 1700-1900 MDT. Outflow winds
remain the primary storm threat today, with a 90% chance for gusts
in excess of 35 mph. Furthermore, there is a 20% chance for
outflow winds of 50 mph. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are
expected today, with wetting rains generally focused under the
stronger storms.

General southwest winds will trend higher Monday, with gusts over
20 mph by 1400.

.REST OF TODAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in
  the morning. Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in
  the afternoon.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...50 percent.
* Chance Lightning....40 percent.
* Max Temperature.....66-71.
* Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 6-10 mph. Gusts of 12-18 mph after
  1400.
* Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl increasing to 5500 ft agl in the
  afternoon.
* Mixing Winds........Southwest 15 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.04-0.14 inches.

.TONIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Rain showers likely and chance
  of thunderstorms in the evening.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...Less than 10 percent.
* Chance Lightning....50 percent.
* Min Temperature.....48-53.
* Max Humidity........64-69 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........West 6-9 mph becoming variable 3-5 mph
  overnight.
* Mixing Height.......Less than 100 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........South 5 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.01 inches.

.MONDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and
  slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...10 percent.
* Chance Lightning....20 percent.
* Max Temperature.....69-74.
* Min Humidity........22-27 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 8-13 mph. Gusts 20-25 mph after
  1400.
* Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl increasing to 8000 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Southwest 15 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.00 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Lukinbeal
Requested by...Dillon Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2520031.1/MSO
.DELDT 08/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mtddc@firenet.gov, ryan.leech@noaa.gov