037
FNUS75 KMSO 040405
FWSMSO

Spot Forecast for Bear Creek
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1005 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2200 MDT on July 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A trough of low pressure will bring showers and
thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. The first round of rain will
arrive between 1100-1400. Southwest winds will develop as this
rain arrives, with gusts near 15 mph as showers arrive. The
atmosphere will destabilize in the afternoon, with thunderstorms
developing in the area by mid-afternoon. The primary window to
monitor for thunderstorms will be between 1300-1700, with a
chance of lightning at 25%. Any storms will be capable of
producing outflows of 20-30 mph from the south. Showers will
continue tomorrow night into Saturday as the trough moves into
northwest Montana and stalls. Through Saturday, confidence is high
(>90% probability) for wetting rains, with a 55% chance for 0.25
inches and 30% chance for 0.50 inches of rain.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...0 percent.
* Chance Lightning....0 percent.
* Min Temperature.....51-56.
* Max Humidity........45-50 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........West around 5 mph late in the evening
  becoming variable 2-4 mph.
* Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Northwest 5 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.00 inches.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
  morning, then rain showers likely and slight chance of
  thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...60 percent.
* Chance Lightning....25 percent.
* Max Temperature.....66-71.
* Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Variable 2-4 mph becoming southwest 4-7 mph
  with gusts to 15 mph in the early afternoon.
* Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl increasing to 3500 ft agl late in
  the afternoon.
* Mixing Winds........East 5 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.07-0.20 inches.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the
  evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Chance of rain showers
  overnight.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...40 percent.
* Chance Lightning....20 percent.
* Min Temperature.....46-51.
* Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Variable 1-3 mph.
* Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........West 5 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.05-0.15 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Leach
Requested by...Jaden Callaghan
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517281.0/MSO
.DELDT 07/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL MTMDC@firenet.gov