364
FXUS65 KMSO 030822
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon into Thursday
   morning.

-  Active weather pattern this weekend into next week.

High pressure has settled across the Northern Rockies this
morning, with satellite imagery showing stratus clouds across far
northwest Montana and clear skies across much the area. A Pacific
trough remains on track to bring showers and isolated thunderstorms
by this afternoon and evening across Idaho and Montana. Gusty
outflow winds will be the primary storm threat, with gusts of
30-40 mph focusing along and south of the I-90 corridor. The
trough axis will swing through overnight, with shower activity
continuing into early Thursday morning. Most areas will see 0.05
to 0.20 inches of precipitation. This system will push east of the
divide by Thursday afternoon, leading to a drying trend into
Friday.

Ensemble model guidance is in strong agreement for the upper
level flow to become southwesterly on Saturday as a trough of low
pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest. Model cluster analysis
points towards uncertainty with how this low pressure system will
evolve and impact the Northern Rockies Saturday into Monday. This
flow pattern will lead to a warming trend, with temperatures near
to above seasonal average. Showers and thunderstorm return to the
forecast this weekend, especially from Lemhi county into southwest
Montana. The far majority of the models do show part of the
trough making its way through the Northern Rockies on Sunday
causing cooler temperatures along with scattered shower activity.
The majority of ensemble members (80 percent), have little to any
precipitation across the region as this trough passes. Around 20
percent of model clusters point towards a deeper low with
widespread rain and colder temperatures. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Satellite imagery this morning shows a stratus deck
moving southward from Canada across far northwest Montana, with
clear skies across the remaining Northern Rockies airspace. Clear
skies and calm surface winds will set the stage for patchy valley
fog to develop, primarily near river systems and larger lakes.
Stratus clouds will limit the potential for KGPI to experience
dense fog impacts. For KMSO, the potential for river fog
formation will be monitored between 03/1100-1400Z, with a 10-20%
chance for brief visibility impacts.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$