972
FXUS65 KMSO 051838
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1238 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGES:

-  Isolated showers this afternoon and evening, primarily along
   the Continental Divide.

-  Warming and drying trend through early next week.

A weak shortwave trough will remains over the region this
afternoon, bringing seasonal temperatures, along with afternoon
and evening showers. The best chance for showers will be northwest
Montana and the high country along the Continental Divide.

High pressure will strengthen and build into the region tomorrow
into early next week, bringing a significant warm up and generally
dry conditions. Monday looks like the hottest day this week with
many valleys reaching into the low 90s and nearing 100 for the
lower valleys of north central Idaho. Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible across Lemhi County and southwest Montana by Monday
and Tuesday afternoons.

Ensemble forecast models, around 60 percent, are now showing a
weak disturbance developing over the region by Wednesday. As it
stands now, there is anywhere between a 40 to 50 percent
probability for at least a wetting rain (0.10") for many locations
across western Montana in a 24 hour period.

Nearly all ensemble models continue to show an even larger pattern
change by the end of next week, that could be much more favorable
for widespread wetting rains. While the models are showing a
change, the confidence in the timing remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak disturbance passing through the region in
northerly flow will continue to favor afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms, as far west as the Idaho/western Montana
border. These showers may lead to brief MVFR ceilings and
localized reduced visibility. KBTM and KSMN stand the best chance
of seeing a shower through 06/0300z. Winds will generally be
light and terrain driven.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$