917
FXUS65 KMSO 061841
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1241 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGES:

-  A warming and drying trend is expected through early next week,
   with near-record highs on Monday.

-  A potential reprieve from hot and dry conditions is anticipated
   mid to late next week, with showery and seasonable weather
   likely.


A weak shortwave sliding south out of British Columbia will maintain
mostly overcast skies across the Northern Rockies through the
remainder of the day. Isolated rain showers will be possible,
mainly confined to mountainous terrain along the ID/MT border and
the Continental Divide.

A strong ridge of high pressure will build into the Pacific
Northwest this weekend and persist through midweek. This will
bring another stretch of hot and dry weather to the Northern
Rockies. By Monday, temperatures will approach record highs in
many areas of western Montana and north-central Idaho. Moderate
Heat Risk levels are expected, potentially affecting most
individualsparticularly those without effective cooling or
adequate hydration. Please take precautions when recreating or
working outdoors this weekend and into early next week.

Nearly all ensemble models indicate the ridge will begin to
flatten by Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves in from the west.
This transition will bring more seasonable temperatures and an
increase in scattered rain showers. Currently, there is a 4050%
probability of wetting rains (> 0.10") for locations along and
east of the Highway 93 corridor in western Montana. North-central
Idaho will have lower chances, around 20% or less.

The majority of ensemble forecast models also suggest an even
stronger trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest by
the end of the week or next weekend, bringing improved chances for
wetting rains across more of the region. About 30% of the models
show a cutoff low developing over the Northern Rockies, though
confidence in that scenario remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak shortwave sliding south out of British Columbia
will maintain mostly overcast skies across the Northern Rockies
through the remainder of the day. Isolated rain showers will be
possible, mainly confined to mountainous terrain along the ID/MT
border and the Continental Divide. This wave will also bring a
slight increase in westerly winds, with gusts up to around 20 kts
expected at all terminals between 06/2000Z and 07/0300Z this
evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$