704
FXUS65 KMSO 181821
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1221 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold front with associated gusty winds, mountain snow, and
  valley rain showers Saturday afternoon

- Scattered showers, breezy winds, and isolated thunder
  possibility late Sunday into Monday with potential for minor
  road impacts due to snow showers above 4,000ft

- Unsettled weather lasts through most of next week, breezy
  afternoons, slight and gradual warming trend


A relatively weak Pacific cold front associated with a shortwave
trough will slide southeast out of the Pacific NW during the day
Saturday and into the evening. This system will not be as cold as
the previous event leading to scattered mountain snow and valley
rain showers. An increase in sustained westerly winds and gusts
around 25 mph should be quite common across much of the area with
this frontal passage.

A succeeding cooler trough will dig southeast out of British
Columbia into early next week capable of producing periods of
valley rain and snow showers above 4,000ft late Sunday into the
first half of Monday. A low-probability chance exists for
snowflakes falling to some valley floors Monday morning with no
expected accumulation at this time. This cooler trough will also
bring another breezy set of days, with a 50 to 70 percent
probability for gusts reaching 30 mph during the afternoon hours
on Sunday and Monday. As a result, local lakes with open water
including Flathead Lake may experience rough and choppy conditions
during this time frame.


Ensemble members are aligning into agreement for a relatively
stationary, and broad, longwave trough being reinforced over the
west coast of the U.S for much of next week. This will continue to
bring an unsettled, yet very seasonable, weather pattern under
light west-southwesterly flow through at least the 24th of April.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail into Saturday. Winds
remain light until Saturday afternoon. Then, gusts of 15-25 kts
occur associated with a weak Pacific cold front. Scattered light
showers will accompany the front but with limited aviation impacts
at terminal sites, although mountain obscurations will be a
concern.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$