Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
170 FXUS65 KMSO 261812 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1212 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms today, gusty outflow wind potential. - Isolated/scattered thunderstorm pattern Thursday through Saturday. - Warm up expected to start next week, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms increases after 2 July. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a weak wave transits the Northern Rockies today. Missoula and northward clouds may inhibit convection slightly with results similar to yesterday virga, sprinkles, and brief showers with large rain drops. Elsewhere, any showers or thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and brief but heavy showers. Friday similar conditions will have a similar result, albeit in much smaller area, likely southern Bitterroot, Anaconda Range, Lemhi County ID, and southwest MT. High pressure builds over the region Sunday and Monday onward expect temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The models have been very consistent trying to pinch off energy, from the overall flow, over northern California on the 2nd. If this scenario happens southwesterly flow will advect or move a unstable air mass into the Northern Rockies. While details are limited, typical scenarios like this produce cloud storms/ virga on day one, with increasing chances and expanding coverage of thunderstorms each subsequent afternoon. && .AVIATION... A moist air mass over the region with southwest flow aloft means we`ll have another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Terminal KBTM is the most likely to be effected by afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Terminals KMSO, KHRF, and KSMN are in the area where we expect convection to initiate, so storms are not expected to be mature in those areas but the convection will be noticeable. Convection in the region should die down by 27/02Z or 27/03Z. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$