714
FXUS65 KMSO 132018
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
218 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty winds and low humidity through this evening with
  increased fire weather concerns

- Cooler Thursday into the weekend

- Beneficial rain for far northwest Montana Friday night into
  Saturday

A weak dry cold front is currently passing through western
Montana, leading to increasing winds and dry conditions. Winds
gusting between 30 and 40 mph are becoming fairly widespread
across all of western Montana and north central Idaho. This will
lead to choppy conditions on area lakes as well as critical fire
weather conditions, with the highest concern over grasslands and
sagebrush areas.

Much drier air will filter in behind the cold front with westerly
flow aloft, which will continue overall dry conditions through
the day Friday. Today`s cold front is anticipated to stall out
across southwest Montana late tonight into Thursday, bringing
another afternoon of breezy winds on Thursday. Temperatures will
run several degrees cooler.

Late Friday into this weekend, the upper level flow becomes more
southwesterly as a trough of low pressure digs south along the
Pacific northwest coast. This is a favorable pattern to bring
increased moisture into the region in the form of showers and
thunderstorms. Beneficial rain still looks possible, but mainly
confined to far northwest Montana, near the Idaho panhandle, with
the probability of 0.10" or more through Saturday morning at
around 40 to 60 percent.

A warming and drying trend is expected early next week as southwesterly
flow remains in place. This pattern may still bring subtle disturbances
capable of producing showers and thunderstorms, but their timing and
intensity remain uncertain. Temperatures will also warm under this
pattern, likely running a few degrees above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist through Thursday under westerly flow
aloft. A weak cold front is moving through western Montana this
afternoon and will stall out across southwest Montana tonight.
Breezy westerly winds with gusts of 25-35 kts are already being
observed and will likely continue through sunset.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Flathead
     Reservation.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Deerlodge/West
     Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for East
     Beaverhead.

ID...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Palouse/Hells
     Canyon.

&&

$$