131
FXUS65 KMSO 030808
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
208 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  The KMSX Radar (Missoula, MT local weather radar) will remain
   offline due to scheduled maintenance through the first week of
   August.

-  Models are trending wetter, allowing some thunderstorms this
   afternoon.

-  The pattern remains active through the week.

Recently models have been trending less dry for today. As a
result, the chance of thunderstorms is increasing again in
southwest Montana and souther Idaho county in Idaho. Models are
bringing a shortwave in faster on Monday now, so thunderstorms on
Monday will start sooner in the day.

The Aleutian low south of Alaska in the north Pacific Ocean
remains active and keeps kicking out short waves into the
northwest U.S. for most of the week. As a result we may get a day
break from thunderstorms here and there, but most days will have
thunderstorms across the region. The specifics of when and where
will change from day to day as we really need to see the
shortwaves forming and ejecting from the low before we can
accurately forecast their impacts. And sometimes that can be
difficult even a day in advance.

The ensembles are starting to come into agreement on a more robust
trough impacting the region next weekend with temperatures 10-15
degrees below average. Longer term ensembles are keep hinting at a
warming and drying pattern with northwest flow into the region.
Right now that looks like it will have to wait 7 or 8 more days
until next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Some dry air coming into the region today will reduce
but not eliminate the thunderstorms in the region. Terminals KGPI
and KSMN are the most likely to be affected by thunderstorms this
afternoon. Overnight will be a different story as models are
agreeing better on the next shortwave arriving early potentially
giving convection on Monday an early start.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$