217
FXUS65 KMSO 071953
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
153 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  A warming and drying trend is expected through early next week,
   with near-record highs on Monday into Tuesday.

-  A potential reprieve from hot and dry conditions is anticipated
   mid to late next week, with showers, thunderstorms and
   seasonable weather likely.

The upper level flow is out of the northwest this afternoon and
evening which will allow for the development of some fair weather
cumulus along with the potential of an isolated shower on the
terrain near the Continental Divide. This flow pattern is also
pushing a significant smoke plume from northern British Columbia
into central Montana. A few of the models are indicating that
some of this smoke could settle into northwest Montana tonight and
linger into Sunday causing hazy conditions along with keeping
temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecasted.

The ridge of high pressure strengthens over the region Sunday into
Tuesday causing extremely hot and dry conditions across the
Northern Rockies for this time of year. Temperatures are
anticipated to be in the 90s to low 100s by Monday afternoon which
is 20 to 25 degrees above seasonal average. These readings will be
near daily records. The low valleys around Riggins, Idaho will be
approaching Major Heat Risk category Monday into Tuesday due to
the extreme daytime temperatures, while Monday night`s minimum
temperatures appear to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The ridge shifts slightly to the east on Tuesday which will allow
for better mixing across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will
remain extremely hot throughout the day, but anticipating an
increase in clouds along with the potential for a few showers to
develop across the region.

The upper level pattern will become southwesterly Wednesday
through the end of the work week as a trough of low pressure
develops along the Pacific Coast. This pattern will allow for
cooler temperatures, but readings are anticipated to remain above
seasonal averages for the second week of June. The flow pattern
will also be conducive to afternoon shower and thunderstorm
development each day. The latest model solutions are indicating a
disturbance moving through this flow pattern on Wednesday
afternoon causing strong thunderstorms to develop over Lemhi
County into southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will keep VFR conditions in the forecast
through Sunday. Some isolated showers will be possible over the
Continental Divide this afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$