276
FXUS65 KMSO 080936
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
336 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Rain diminishes by this evening.

-  A brief drying and warming trend is expected Wednesday and
   Thursday. Fog or low clouds are possible each morning.

-  Chance for frost in high valleys of southwest Montana.

-  Unsettled with showers on Friday. Growing confidence for a wet
   and cool system with high elevation snow developing by this
   weekend, that may start as early as Friday.

A drying trend comes into play late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Seasonable temperatures in the mid 70s for many valley locations
are anticipated. Chilly mornings and even some fog will feel very
fall like to end the week.

Beginning on Thursday, winds will increase from the west as zonal
(westerly) flow develops ahead of the next approaching weather
system. This could cause some increased chop on local lakes as
well as possibly enhancing fire weather concerns across far
southwest Montana, which has largely been missed by the recent
precipitation event.

A digging trough on Friday will bring showers to the region with
cooler temperatures. This initial system may be a quick mover
ahead of the slower trough that is forecast to develop
Saturday/Sunday which could bring more precipitation and high
mountain snowfall. Highs during the weekend could range in the 50s
and 60s. As the low pressure system approaches from the west,
breezy northeasterly winds could be possible on Saturday which
could be impactful to area lakes.


&&

.AVIATION...Decreasing rain showers are expected by this evening across
northwest Montana. With general high pressure over the region,
expect local regimes generally less than 15 knots. Patchy fog or
low cloud development is possible tonight. No chance for
precipitation on Wednesday as mainly VFR conditions will prevail
after any morning fog or stratus.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Flood Watch until noon MDT today for Flathead/Mission Valleys...
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$