Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
991 FXUS65 KMSO 240722 CCA AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Missoula MT 122 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer and drier today. - Isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorm pattern Wednesday into Saturday. - Warm up expected to start June 30, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A weak ridge in place today will bring daytime temperatures back to 5-8F above normal. Just enough instability exists for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Lemhi County and into southwest Montana. On Wednesday, a southwesterly flow pattern sets up, but conditions will remain similar to today with temperatures and shower/thunderstorm coverage, slightly breezy in the afternoon. By Thursday, a weak disturbance combined with deeper moisture will lead to a noticeable uptick in showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for measurable rainfall will be from I-90 southward across western Montana. A few stronger storms may produce gusty outflow winds and small hail. Friday and Saturday will bring similar weather, though with somewhat lower chances of showers and storms. Looking ahead, ensemble guidance shows strong agreement-nearly 100%-on a return to strong ridging early next week (June 30-July 2). High temperatures are expected to climb to 10-15F above normal. There are also early signs of deeper moisture and increased instability, raising the potential for a few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms around July 1-2. Stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today through Wednesday as weak ridging aloft transitions to southwest flow. Patchy valley fog is a concern to start the day. This afternoon, limited instability may support a few showers and thunderstorms, primarily over Lemhi County and into southwest Montana including KSMN and KBTM. Similar conditions are anticipated Wednesday afternoon, with perhaps a slight uptick in convective activity. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$