636
FXUS65 KMSO 020817
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
217 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  The KMSX Radar (Missoula, MT local weather radar) will remain
   offline due to scheduled maintenance through the first week of
   August.

-  Thunderstorms continue today.

-  A brief intrusion of dry air gives the region a day off from
   thunderstorms Sunday.

-  The next wave of storms arrives Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

-  In general, the region remains under southwest flow with
   thunderstorm potential through the week.

A trough moving out of the region today will provide the lift and
instability for another round of thunderstorms today, especially
in northwest Montana. West-central Montana also has some potential
for isolated thunderstorms.

Then Sunday, a brief shot of dry air in the mid-levels moves
through and prevents thunderstorms for a day. But the region in
general remains under southwest flow, and models agree well that
the next shortwave will arrive Monday night into Tuesday morning,
bringing another round of wet thunderstorms. And that general
pattern continues through the week.

Ensembles agree well on a pattern change next weekend with a ridge
building over the U.S. West Coast. This would cause a shift to a
hotter, drier northwest flow over the region. This type of pattern
is concerning in August to due its fire weather impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...A shortwave over the region means a broad area of
thunderstorms will continue over northwest and west-central
Montana today. Isolated storms are expected further south to
mainly affect terminals KBTM, KSMN, and KHRF. Storms will be wet
again with a lot of lightning. Tomorrow (Sunday) looks to be much
drier, so thunderstorms aren`t expected then.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$