277
FXUS65 KMSO 260813
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
213 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  KMSO Radar or the local Missoula MT weather radar will
   continue to be offline due to scheduled maintenance,
   Potentially through 1st week of August.

-  Thunderstorm chances will gradually increase each day, moving
   from south to north, continuing into next week.

-  Strong outflow wind threat (40+ mph) with any thunderstorms
   this afternoon through Monday.

Warm and mostly dry conditions, with breezy afternoons are
expected in the near term. This summer the notorious 4-corners
high has just not been able to get its act together and a near
unanimous suite of global weather models would suggest through at
least the beginning of August that pattern continues. It will
feel very warm this coming week but on average, this is the
warmest week of the year. For instance, 30 July is the
climatologically warmest day for Missoula with an average high
temperature of 88F and our current forecast high is 88F.

While today (and this entire week) our temperature may be
pleasant, there is a chance for a strong thunderstorm south and
east of Missoula Valley. Winds today could gust 20 to 25 mph under
clear skies, any storm will be capable of outflow gusts 40 to 50
mph, especially Lemhi County through southwest MT. Timing on these
storms will generally be after 1 pm through 6 pm.

Sunday and Monday, our weather playlists remains on repeat and
similar conditions are expected. Sunday potential for strong
outflow winds moves north into the northern Bitterroot and
Missoula Valleys, along with I-90 east of Missoula including the
Seeley Valley. These storms may also have brief but heavy
downpours.

Tuesday may bring a change in the coverage and convective mode.
Anomalous moisture will be pushed westward across the Continental
Divide, allowing for expanded coverage of storms and more
numerous storms producing heavy showers. Currently, the WPC or
Weather Prediction Center has a marginal or 5% chance of excessive
rainfall from the Missoula and Bitterroot Valleys east towards
the Divide. This forecaster would not be surprised if future
forecasts expands that area and is continued into Wednesday as
well. In fact, anomalous moisture remains over the region through
the following Saturday allowing for continued shower and
thunderstorm activity.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail again today under southwesterly flow
aloft. Expect typical afternoon gusts in the 15-20 kt range due
to daytime mixing.

Between 26/1900 and 27/0000z, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop across Lemhi County and southwest Montana, including
terminals KSMN and KBTM. Seasonally warm temperatures and
elevated cloud bases will favor strong convective downdrafts, with
isolated outflow wind gusts exceeding 35 kts possible (20%
chance) in association with the more robust storms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$