285
FXUS65 KMSO 280857
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot, dry, and smoky conditions continue through this week.

- Isolated thunderstorms remain a threat for southwest Montana
  including Butte. Potentially expanding northward late this week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions by weekend due to hot and dry
  conditions, with an increase in winds due to projected ridge
  breakdown.

- Cool down to near average temperatures Sunday, though it
  remains dry.

Hot, dry, and smokey conditions continue this week. Southwest MT
where smoke is not as thick remains unstable and daily, isolated,
dry thunderstorms are possible. Beginning Friday a stationary
north Pacific trough begins to strengthen and waves of energy are
expected to eject into the southwesterly flow over the Northern
Rockies. Saturday that trough moves inland and a dry cold front will
push through our region late evening into Sunday.

In the near term, air quality and visibility issues from smoke
will be the main story. That said, isolated, dry thunderstorms
will continue to be possible each evening in southwest MT.
Erractic and strong outflows with lightning and little to no
precipitation are expected. Thursday evening a well defined wave
of energy is expected to eject off the Pacific trough. The
atmosphere will be favorable, with strong mid-level lapse rates
and decent shear available, for strong to severe thunderstorms.
There is a distinct lack of moisture which would indicate the
threat will be dry lightning and strong to severe outflow winds.
The wild card will be surface smoke density and how it effects
atmospheric stability.

Friday through the weekend fire weather concerns become elevated
as the ridge breakdown the weather models have been forecasting
comes into focus. Isolated locations, mainly southwest MT, will
have chances for gusts 20 to 30 mph on Friday. By Saturday, there
are widespread chances for westerly wind gusts 30 to 40 mph and
overnight into Sunday the focus will be northwest MT where gusts
to 50 mph are possible along the Continental Divide.

In addition to Fire WX concerns, those with outdoor plans
especially in NW MT should be prepared for strong winds Saturday
evening into Sunday. Back country roads may become blocked by down
branches.

Tired of near constant 90s, the region will cool 8 to 12 degrees
behind the dry cold front. While the models predict the ridge to
slowly rebuild over the region, enjoy those 3 or 4 days of
`seasonably` cool weather.


&&

.AVIATION...Wildfire smoke will continue to be the primary concern through
mid week, as terminals will occasionally drop to MVFR
visibilities. Otherwise, ridging will dominate with hot and dry
conditions. There is only a slight probability (less than 20
percent) for thunderstorm development across Lemhi County into
southwest Montana each afternoon. Expect afternoon gusts to 20 kts
diminishing around sunset for terminal sites.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$