023
FXUS65 KMSO 231843
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1243 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Cold front brings cooler temperatures alongside gusty westerly
   winds, dry air, and elevated fire weather this afternoon.

-  Ridge of high pressure rebuilds early this upcoming week with
   a warming trend.

-  Thunderstorms expand northward Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.


A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across northwest and southwest Montana, otherwise a cold
front will bring a much drier airmass to the region. Gusty
afternoon winds will lead to elevate fire weather conditions,
particularly in southwest Montana. Skies clear this evening with
gusty winds diminishing around sunset.

High pressure ridging builds back in Monday lasting through
Wednesday with a gradual warming trend as high temperatures reach
10 degrees above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. After a few
morning showers on Tuesday, thunderstorm chances may expand
northward to about the I-90 corridor in western Montana. Much will
depend on if morning cloud cover lingers into the afternoon and
limits instability and thus thunderstorm coverage. Monsoon
moisture spreads over most of the Northern Rockies on Wednesday
(potentially Thursday as well), expanding areal coverage of
shower/thunderstorm chances. This activity will likely be a mix
of dry and wet thunderstorms, thus new fire starts will be a
concern.

Nearly all ensemble guidance supports a trough into the Pacific
Northwest Friday into Saturday knocking down the ridge. This
pattern supports increased afternoon winds and a slight cool down
in daytime temperatures, thus fire weather concerns become
elevated once again.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms continue
across northwest and southwest Montana this afternoon. Otherwise,
a significantly drier airmass will mix into the region with
widespread VFR weather conditions. Deep mixing will produce gusty
westerly winds between 15 and 30 knots across all terminals
through the early evening hours. Winds decouple and relax around
sunset. Ridging builds in Monday with VFR conditions and light
diurnally driven winds.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Deerlodge/West
     Beaverhead.

ID...None.
&&

$$