438
FXUS65 KMSO 241828
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1228 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm, mild weather continues through the weekend.

- Thunderstorms arrive Memorial Day (Monday), especially for southwest Montana.

- The rest of the week is warm and mild, with a slight chance of
  showers for some locations.

A ridge over the region will cause a sunny, warm, and mild
weekend. By Monday, southerly flow over the region and a trough
approaching from the west causes thunderstorms. Current forecast
tools show the main threats from thunderstorms to be wind gusts
around 40 mph, some small hail, and heavy rain. No severe
thunderstorms are expected.

Through the rest of the week a mild ridge remains over the region.
It`s rather weak though, and many models show a small, weak cutoff
low migrating under the ridge. As a result, there is a slight
chance for afternoon showers, especially south of I-90 through the
rest of the week.

Ensembles have just under 50% of member showing another trough and
thunderstorm pattern arriving next Saturday, while around 50% have
it arriving next Sunday. So either way, the odds are high that
there`s another trough, cold front, and round of thunderstorms
sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...A ridge over the region is causing VFR conditions
today and tonight. Some recent precipitation and
evapotranspiration combined with ample radiational cooling at
night are causing some patchy fog in the mornings, especially near
area rivers. We do not expect this to expand enough to directly
affect any terminals, but early morning flights may notice it near
terminals KMSO and KGPI.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$