166
FNUS74 KMRX 191226
FWSMRX

Spot Forecast for Abrams Creek SAR...Great Smoky Mountains Nat Park
National Weather Service Morristown TN
826 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EDT on July 19.

If conditions become unrepresentative,contact the National Weather
Service...at 1-800-697-0075. If possible, please provide feedback
for every spot forecast request.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly dry through the morning hours, but with low probabilities
for an isolated shower. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
become more likely by mid afternoon and into this evening. A
decrease is then expected after sunset. Though no severe weather
is anticipated, any stronger showers or storm will have the
capability to produce moderate to heavy rainfall, brief gusty
winds up to 40 mph, and lightning. Daily chances for showers and
storms continue the next several days. Cold front arrives
sometime around Tuesday into Wednesday, will bring slightly drier
air late week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Dewpoint............73.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........44  48  55  51  54  58  50  54  72
Weather cov.....    SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  30  30  40  70  70  70  60
Temp............73  76  77  79  80  82  82  83  84
Dewpoint........72  73  74  74  74  74  74  74  74
RH..............97  90  90  85  82  77  77  74  72
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Surface wnd spd.3   3   3   4   3   3   3   3   3
Surface wnd gst.6   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   7

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Dewpoint............72 decreasing to 69 after 3 am.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........59  43  56  39  43  49  37  26  31  29  33  32
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).50  40  20  10  10  10  10  0   10  10  10  0
Temp............82  81  79  76  75  75  75  74  73  73  73  72
Dewpoint........74  73  73  72  72  71  71  70  70  70  69  69
RH..............77  77  82  87  90  87  87  87  90  90  87  90
Surface wnd dir.NW  W   W   S   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Surface wnd spd.3   3   3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Surface wnd gst.7   7   6   3   3   3   3   2   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Sam Roberts
Requested by...Josh Albrittan
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2617744.0/MRX
.DELDT 07/19/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL randy_kelly@nps.gov,GRSM_Dispatch@nps.gov