874
FXUS64 KMRX 301109
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
709 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 704 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Warming temps into next week with highs in the low to mid 90s.
  Heat index values of 100-105 degrees for central and southern TN
  Valley are probable.

- Dry conditions continue for most places, outside of some diurnal
  rain and storm chances across the east TN mountains and perhaps
  the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Not much change with this forecast package. Isolated, diurnal,
showers and storm chances continue each day across the east TN
mountains and perhaps the Cumberland Plateau. The main story is the
building heat due to a strong ridge of high pressure.

The upcoming week looks to be a rather unpleasant return to hot and
muggy conditions as an upper level ridge locks in over the southern
United States. This will lead to temperatures climbing into the 90`s
for most locations every afternoon this week. And unfortunately
along with this the dew points will rise back into the upper 60`s to
lower 70`s making for high heat index values near or just above the
triple digit mark. It`s possible that some of our southern areas may
approach Heat Advisory criteria at some point. As we get closer to
the end of the week, and into Labor Day Weekend, the high may
retrograde west again as an upper trough swings down into New
England. This may put us back in a northwest flow pattern, which
would increase our chances of rain and bring slightly cooler high
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Persistent forecast with prevailing VFR conditions and light
winds through the period. Additional fog/br possible at TRI
tomorrow morning, but HREF continues to paint negligible
probabilities of MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  72  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  71  93  71 /   0   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS